Where Patriots Stand In AFC Playoff Picture Ahead Of Final Two Games

All but two tickets have been punched for the AFC playoffs, but plenty remains on the line in the final two weeks of the regular season.

The Indianapolis Colts’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night secured playoff berths for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Chargers. It has been a staggering free fall for a Colts team that went all in at the deadline, and now has just a three percent chance of making the postseason.

Though the Colts are not officially eliminated, their playoff hopes are a distant three percent. Barring chaos, the Colts and Baltimore Ravens appear done in by their Week 16 losses, with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans now firmly owning the inside track to the final spots.

So, here is where things stand heading into Week 17.

1. Denver Broncos, 12-4
2. New England Patriots, 12-4
3. Jacksonville Jaguars, 11-4
5. Los Angeles Chargers, 11-4
6. Buffalo Bills, 11-4
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4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-6
7. Houston Texans, 10-5
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8. Indianapolis Colts, 8-7
9. Baltimore Ravens, 7-8

The quick analysis here is that pretty much everyone has something to play for the final two weeks. Of the current playoff teams, all but the Steelers have a mathematical path to the first-round bye.

From a Patriots lens, the only concern if they win out is what Denver does since the Broncos currently hold the tiebreaker for the top seed.

At the least, winning out guarantees the division for the Patriots because they own a game on Buffalo. However, the two sides ending with the same record would mean the Patriots lost to either the Miami Dolphins or the New York Jets. Although the Patriots currently hold the tiebreaker over the Bills, a scenario like this would result in Buffalo holding the advantage in conference/common games.

Further, one loss could quickly make the final week of the season fairly consequential from a seeding standpoint. Because there are so many teams at 11-4, their results, coupled with at least one Patriots loss, could start a domino effect that results in the Patriots playing their playoff game(s) on the road.

All of which is to say, everything from a wild-card round road game to a first-round bye remains on the table for New England — a position fans certainly would have accepted entering the season.