NFL fans are wondering if Sean Payton got too aggressive during the opening half of Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
The Denver Broncos led 7-0 over the New England Patriots when facing a 4th-and-1 at New England’s 14. Rather than sending out Wil Lutz to kick a field goal, Payton left an offense led by a second-string quarterback Jarrett Stidham on the field.
Payton kept the ball in Stidham’s hands, but Patriots defenders swarmed the former New England quarterback before he could roll out of the pocket. The Broncos turned the ball over on downs, ending an 11-play drive with no points.
Plenty of viewers yelled at Payton for not taking the points, but ESPN Analytics agreed with his choice. ESPN’s model determined that the Broncos increased their win probability from 67.2 percent to 69.3 percent by attempting the fourth down.
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Of course, skeptics could reasonably argue that the circumstances should sway the math toward the conservative approach. The Broncos were up at home behind an understudy quarterback, and their No. 2 defense had stymied the Patriots to 36 yards on four drives that all ended in punts.
Another model reached that conclusion. The 4th Down Decision Bot, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin, found that Denver’s win probability dropped from 66 to 64 percent by attempting the fourth down instead of kicking a field goal. Those odds dipped to 58 percent after the Broncos failed to convert.
In most situations, it pays to leave the offense on the field inside the red zone to gain one yard and chase a touchdown. Perhaps this is a game where three points are too valuable to risk.
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The Broncos later gifted the Patriots a golden opportunity when a Stidham fumble set up a 12-yard scoring drive. Lutz missed a 54-yard field goal in the second quarter’s final minute to keep the game tied 7-7 at halftime.
Featured image via Tim Heitman-Imagn Images
