ESPN Model Forecasts Tight Patriots-Texans Playoff Clash

ESPN Analytics foreshadows a razor-close AFC Divisional Round matchup between the New England Patriots and Houston Texans.

The Patriots enter Sunday’s playoff game with the narrowest of edges. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives New England a 50.9 percent win probability.

Oddsmakers also don’t see much of a gap between the Patriots and Texans. Most sportsbooks peg the Patriots as a three-point favorite at Gillette Stadium, and the home team typically garners an automatic three-point edge.

Despite the perceived close nature of Sunday’s matchup, five ESPN panelists unanimously picked a Texans victory on Friday’s “NFL Live.” They were all stunned by the realization, seemingly each thinking some of their peers would back the Pats.

On the other hand, seven of 10 NFL executives polled by The Athletic predicted a New England triumph. One doubted that Houston’s offense would play well enough without star wide receiver Nico Collins to support a stout defense.

“The Texans’ running game isn’t there,” the executive said. “You want to have faith in that defense, but I don’t trust the offense to take enough pressure off them.”

The Texans closed the regular season with nine straight wins before running away with a Wild Card Round rout over the Pittsburgh Steelers with 23 unanswered fourth-quarter points. Will Anderson leads a dangerous defense, but no playoff team made the second round with a worse offense than Houston’s No. 18 group.

Meanwhile, New England closed the season third in offense and eighth in defense before a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Mike Vrabel may need a better performance from Drake Maye and Co. to take one step closer to the Super Bowl.

Sunday’s game starts at 3 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN.