Insider Panel Resoundingly Backs Patriots To Beat Broncos For AFC Title

A group of NFL coaches and executives who have expertly prognosticated the first two rounds are predicting another New England Patriots win.

The Athletic’s Jeff Howe has polled the same panel to pick every game this postseason. They’ve gone 10-0 thus far, correctly favoring the Patriots each time. They unanimously forecasted a first-round win over the Los Angeles Chargers, and seven of 10 accurately predicted a New England triumph over the Houston Texans.

Why abandon Mike Vrabel’s squad now? Nine of those 10 executives and coaches picked the Patriots to defeat the Denver Broncos in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

Even on the road, the Patriots are considerable favorites to upend Jarrett Stidham for their 12th AFC title in franchise history. One executive was dubious that the Broncos could overcome Bo Nix’s absence despite their dangerous defense.

“Denver’s best chance is to find a run game, and their defense is going to have to play lights out,” the executive said. “In these games, you have high-leverage plays, and you need your quarterback to make two or three of those to win unless the defense takes the ball away. I don’t think the Broncos offensive weapons are good enough to (carry the quarterback).”

Drake Maye has gotten sacked 10 times and lost three of six fumbles this postseason. An executive pointed to pocket pressure as the key to Denver pulling off an upset, but they identified ways offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can help Maye avoid hits.

“When you get sacked a bunch, the ball is going to come out,” an executive said. “That’s going to be Denver’s formula all week, and that’s what the Patriots will combat. I’d expect to see a lot of running the ball and the screen game early.”

Sunday’s AFC Championship Game begins at 3 p.m. ET on CBS.