DraftKings Executive Reveals Why Patriots Are Such Big Super Bowl Underdogs

Heading into Super Bowl Weekend, the New England Patriots remain 4.5-point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks at most major North American sportsbooks, including DraftKings.

After opening as 3.5-point underdogs, the Patriots’ line quickly moved to +4.5 and has stayed there over the last two weeks.

New England and the Seahawks seem pretty evenly matched on paper, so why is that the case? They both have potent offenses, elite defenses, great coaching staffs, and talented quarterbacks making their Super Bowl debuts.

On Thursday, Johnny Avello, race and sports operations director at DraftKings, joined the “Jones & Keefe” radio show on WEEI to explain.

"We have a liability on the Patriots."

How did the books settle on the Patriots as 4.5-point underdogs in the Super Bowl on Sunday?

Johnny Avello, race and sports operations director at DraftKings, joined @JonesandKeefe to explain. pic.twitter.com/wFsCkGAb5o

— WEEI (@WEEI) February 5, 2026

“Our power rating was closer to 3.5, 4 than it was to 4.5. That’s number one. Number two is that we have a liability on the Patriots,” Avello explained, meaning the sportsbook will take a loss on the Super Bowl if New England wins.

“We opened the Patriots 60 to 1 to win the Super Bowl back about two days after the Super Bowl ended last year, and we’ve taken a steady stream of money, and we’re in a pretty good liability,” Avello added.

He also admitted DraftKings was slow to come around on the Patriots and properly price their odds as the season progressed, putting them in an even bigger hole.

“Now, I will say, we were really slow to move the odds on the Patriots. As the season went on, our ratings kind of held,” Avello said. “We weren’t believers because of the softer schedule, and, looking back, maybe we should have moved it a little quicker. But we are now in a position where it’s a liability.”

By opening the Super Bowl at Seattle -3.5, Avello said DraftKings hoped to attract more Seahawks bettors to balance the scales a bit. However, he said they’re still receiving a good amount of action on New England’s moneyline, which is listed at +190 on DraftKings as of Friday morning.

Nevada sportsbooks have lost money on the Super Bowl only twice since 1991 and not since 2008, so it would be incredibly unusual if DraftKings loses money this weekend. However, it sounds like that may happen if the Patriots upset Seattle.