The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will do battle in Super Bowl LX on Sunday.
Who will win? How will they do it? Can we predict the script?
I’ve put together the keys to victory for both sides:
NE: THROW CAUTION TO THE WIND
I’ve been publishing entries in this series throughout the postseason, and one common theme has been how teams need to protect the football and do their best to avoid making mistakes — but that all goes out the window when you have an opportunity to win the Super Bowl.
Drew Bledsoe said it best to Tom Brady during Super Bowl XXXVI: “(Expletive) that. Go out there and sling it!”
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If there was ever a time to go out there and sling it, it’s in a game where you’re the underdog, your defense is playing its best football of the season and you have a sophomore signal-caller who can throw it around better than just about anybody.
I’ll talk more about how these teams actually match up on the field, but perhaps the most important aspect to the game is about the mentality that each team enters with.
The Seahawks are somewhat surprisingly viewed as an obvious favorite, which could lead to them playing not to lose. The Patriots need to play with the intention of winning, and that inherently gives them an advantage.
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SEA: STRIKE FIRST
New England was shockingly efficient in the first half this season, as it carried a lead into halftime in all but three games and trailed just once: 14-7 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.
Seattle has developed something of a comeback mentality, either being tied or trailing at halftime seven times including a stretch of four games against the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers in December.
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If you flip those numbers in this one, the former’s chances might be dead on arrival. I’d expect there to be a concerted effort from the latter to create negative plays and put itself in advantageous situations at the beginning of the game, because that will be its best opportunity to actually control things.
NE: QUICK GAME
The Seahawks’ defense does just about everything well, ranking first in points allowed per game (17.1) and third down conversion percentage (32.28%), second in expected points added per play (-0.12) and yards allowed per passing attempt (6.2) — but there’s one thing it struggles with…
Seattle’s opponents have been successful gaining yards after the catch, with the San Francisco 49ers (112), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (202) and Los Angeles Rams (208) all taking advantage at certain points throughout the season — so why not get it out quickly and let skill players do their thing?
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TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams are two rookies who have played well when given the opportunity, but didn’t necessarily fit the gameplan in previous weeks. I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a concerted effort at getting the ball in their hands, though, as the former had games of 34, 28 and 18 YAC, and the latter having that particularly noticeable game of 59 YAC.
“It’s definitely an emphasis (to get faster),” executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf said after the 2025 NFL Draft. “… We picked guys that can run… I think their play speed is really what stands out about Henderson and Williams, too.”
It’s time to see what that speed can do for you…
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SEA: FORCE ONE-DIMENSIONAL GAMEPLAN
The Seahawks do almost everything from their nickel/dime defensive packages, and they do it well.
If you remember those statistics we shared earlier, you’ll know how impressive it is for them to defense the run so effectively with so many defensive backs on the field. ESPN’s Mina Kimes shared the statistics on Wednesday:
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Seahawks (Nickel/Dime)
4.0 yards per carry: 1st
-0.07 expected points added per play: 1st
64% success rate: 1st
18.7% first downs per carry: 1st
Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy’s collective ability to muddy things up in the middle has allowed for their fast and physical defensive backs — Nick Emmanwori, Coby Bryant, Ty Okada — to clean things up in the running game while also remaining effective against the pass.
The Patriots need to run the football effectively against those looks, because if they don’t, they’re effectively hanging their sophomore signal-caller out to dry.
NE: WIN EARLY DOWNS
The Seahawks were the second-worst team at converting third-and-seven or more in 2025.
The Patriots were the best team at defending third-and-seven or more in 2025.
I don’t have to spell it out for you any more than that, do I?
SEA: WIN THE ONE-ON-ONE OPPORTUNITIES
New England’s entire defensive identity since the playoffs started has been to bring pressure and force opposing quarterbacks to make mistakes. Seattle knows that’s coming, and needs to alter its own gameplan in preparation.
It’s old school stuff.
The Patriots will almost certainly build their defensive gameplan around doubling Jaxon Smith-Njigba — a.k.a. “Cover 1, Double 11” — and going man-on-man across the board so they can bring as much pressure as possible against Sam Darnold. The Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts are the teams who have been able to take that plan and impact Darnold since his resurgence with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024.
The Seahawks can’t win this game without taking full advantage of what is an extremely obvious strategy — though obvious doesn’t mean easy. It’s a one-on-one kind of game, which means the team with the better personnel will be rewarded greatly.
Featured image via Cary Edmondson/Imagn Images
