NFL Writer Gives Patriots Shockingly Low Chance To Make Super Bowl Next Season

When the 2026 NFL regular season kicks off, each of the teams will technically have a 6.25 percent chance of making it to Super Bowl LXI.

One would think that with a combination of 23-year-old MVP runner-up quarterback Drake Maye and AP Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel in stow for next season, NFL writers would like the New England Patriots’ chances of returning to the big game a bit more than that.

Jacob Robinson of The Athletic went in the other direction, giving the Patriots just a five percent chance of competing in Super Bowl LXI.

For what it’s worth, he placed the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks’ chances at 30 percent.

“So despite Maye playing in his first at age 23, there’s a chance the Patriots quarterback never makes it back,” Robinson wrote. “…I’d put the Patriots’ odds of an immediate return at just 5 percent. You’ve surely tired of hearing about their historically easy schedule. Well, it will now flip into one of the league’s tougher slates, with 11 games against teams that finished above .500, plus the Chiefs (6-11). For contrast, only three of New England’s 2025 opponents finished this season above .500.”

First, any predictions for each of the 32 NFL teams’ chances of making the championship contest that’s still one year away is an educated guess at best.

The offseason has barely started, the 2026 NFL Draft is still over two months away, no trades or free agency signings have happened and injuries will likely be the biggest factor for all teams.

It is notable that Robinson sees such a big gap in the likelihood of Seattle returning to the big stage in 2027 versus New England though.

“Their offense has plenty of needs, from an improved offensive line to a top weapon for Maye. They’ll also be drafting at the end of each round, and are expected to fork over a significant extension for elite cornerback Christian Gonzalez,” he wrote. “Vrabel made them fun to watch again, but repeating this sudden success will be difficult, just as it was for the Commanders in 2024. As someone who thought this past offseason that the Patriots would improve into a 10-win surprise, I’m skeptical they’ll be better than that in 2026.”