Patriots Maintain Strong Chance To Win AFC East Despite Bills Loss

The New England Patriots couldn’t secure the AFC East title on Sunday, but they remain in the driver’s seat with three weeks left.

New England’s division lead dwindled to one game following a 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills. While the AFC East remains in play, a projection model still favors the Patriots to finish the job.

The Athletic Playoff Simulator gives New England a 71 percent chance of winning the division. Although neither team has clinched a playoff berth, the Patriots and Bills each have over a 99 percent probability of making the postseason.

Of course, Mike Vrabel and Co. would prefer to have celebrated a division crown on Sunday. The Patriots sprinted to a 21-0 lead, but Josh Allen led five consecutive touchdown drives in an eventful ending at Gillette Stadium.

Since the Patriots and Bills split their two meetings, a tiebreaker would be determined by their records in division play. The Bills are 3-2 with a Week 18 matchup against the New York Jets, and the Patriots are 3-1 before facing the Jets and Miami Dolphins in the final two weeks.

Since that tiebreaker could change hands, the Patriots can’t clinch the AFC East with a Week 16 win and Bills loss. But regardless of how Buffalo finishes the season, New England can secure its first division crown since 2019 by beating the Jets and Dolphins, even if falling to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.

The Bills play the 3-11 Cleveland Browns this Sunday before hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17.