The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers are each looking to take a major step forward during their wild-card matchup on Sunday.
How?
I’ve put together the keys to victory for both sides:
NE: ESTABLISH THE RUN
Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson will be as important as anyone for the home team, especially as the game progresses.
The Chargers finished second in time of possession (32:30) in 2025, but were actually first in that metric (32:55) before sitting starters in their Week 18 loss to the Denver Broncos.
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The Patriots finished sixth in time of possession (31:17), though they finished with what would have been the league’s third best mark (31:58) across victories in December and January — all while averaging 4.88 yards per carry, which would have ranked third across the entire season behind the Baltimore Ravens (5.30) and Buffalo Bills (5.00).
If you can run the ball effectively, you control the entire game…
LA: GET IT OUT QUICK
Jamaree Salyer-Zion Johnson-Bradley Bozeman-Mekhi Becton-Trey Pipkins III is expected to be the offensive line, from left to right, for Los Angeles, according to head coach Jim Harbaugh — which isn’t exactly conducive for passing concepts that take time to develop.
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Bozeman (51.7), Becton (35.3) and Pipkins (47.2) are among the lowest rated offensive lineman in the NFL, according to PFF.
The Chargers have used 25 different five-man offensive line combinations over 17 games, which has led to a league-leading 129 total hits on quarterback Justin Herbert.
It’ll be imperative that they get the ball out quickly, even against the 20th ranked pass-rush (6.23% sack percentage) from the regular season. Milton Williams and Christian Barmore aren’t the kind of players you want to look past.
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NE: MAN UP
New England plays more zone coverage (67.1%) than anyone would have expected when they paired Carlton Davis with Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez.
It’s time for that to change.
Los Angeles’ presumed desire to get the ball out quickly could throw a wrench in those plans — given the potential for missed tackles to bite them in the bottom, though you’ll want to take advantage of the talent disparity between your cornerbacks (Davis, Jones and Gonzalez) and their wide receivers (Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston).
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If you can keep them from staying ahead of the chains by attacking zones, that will help avoid the next thing from happening.
LA: WIN THIRD DOWNS
The Chargers rank third in offensive third-down percentage (45.82%) and fifth in defensive third-down percentage (35.18%).
It’s almost like they enjoy playing on third downs, which isn’t something you can say about just anybody.
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Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said it himself: “It’s like they don’t mind being in third-and-three and running it to stay on track because they’re really good on third down.”
The Patriots aren’t so bad in that department, ranking sixth in offensive third-down percentage (42.93%) and 12th in defensive third-down percentage (38.50%), but they’ll need to be even better in order to play their style of football.
NE: AVOID THE SLOW START
7-0. 10-0. 7-0. 10-3.
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The Patriots have found themselves needing to overcome early deficits against the likes of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans.
It’s possible against bottom-feeders like that, but not in the postseason. New England’s ability to start fast, hold onto the football and limit explosive plays will make all the difference.
LA: LIMIT BIG PLAYS
The Chargers have been better at exactly that than anyone, though they have allowed at least one play of 40-plus yards in three of their five losses.
“You have to take chances,” Drake Maye said during his media availability on Wednesday, per team-provided video. “If we have one-on-one opportunities, you’ve gotta take chances. I like our guys making plays on the football when they have one-on-one coverage, so I like giving them the chance to go make a play.”
If they can make one or two big plays, that could be the difference.
Featured image via David Butler II/Imagn Images
