Can Patriots Overcome Alarming Playoff Trends Vs. Chargers?

The Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs is notoriously chaotic and difficult to predict, especially since the postseason expanded to 14 teams in 2020. More teams and more games mean more upsets and more craziness.

For the New England Patriots, Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers will be their first playoff game in four years and their first postseason game at home in six years. It will also be the first career playoff game for Drake Maye, Will Campbell, Christian Gonzalez, TreVeyon Henderson and other Patriots stars.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are back in the postseason for the second straight season and the third time in four years. They enter the weekend as 3.5-point road underdogs on DraftKings.

Recent history has shown the playoff experience matters in the Wild Card Round. Since 2017, Wild Card underdogs against opponents that didn’t make the postseason the previous year are 16-1 against the spread.

During that same time, Wild Card Weekend underdogs are 27-15 against the spread overall. All playoff underdogs are 60-38 against the spread during that time, so that trend isn’t just limited to the Wild Card Round, either.

Furthermore, Maye’s inexperience could be a factor, especially against Justin Herbert, who’s already played in a pair of postseason games (losing both). Quarterbacks with no playoff experience are 20-40 straight up against quarterbacks with playoff experience.

Can New England buck this trend? Los Angeles presents a tough matchup on paper, so it won’t be easy. The Patriots haven’t really been tested this year, so their regular-season dominance is hard to trust. The Chargers are also essentially coming off a bye after resting many of their starters last week.

Los Angeles has been terrible historically in the postseason, but that could be about to change on Sunday against New England’s young, inexperienced, untested and illness-ravaged roster.