Fantasy Baseball Advice for Final Week

We close the book on our 2009 Senior Circuit coverage this week with a look ahead to next season and hitters you should keep an eye for 2010. Using batted ball data, we'll try to identify some sleeper and bust candidates for next season's fantasy drafts.

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Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies: He was victimized by a ridiculously low BABIP (.249), which drove his season batting average all the way down to .244. The positives here were the return of his power stroke (11 homers in '08, 20 homers in '09), and commitment to running hard on the base-paths (30 steals in '09). I'd still consider him the third best option at the position heading into next season, although many won't value him that high after his less than stellar '09 campaign.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres: He is one of the five best hitters in the National League. His below average BABIP (.275) drove down his average, which still sits at a respectable .274. Also, his home park is a pitcher's paradise, so his 39 homers are most impressive. His improvement is apparent when you look at his rise in BB percentage  (17 percent in '09, up almost nine points from '08) and decline in K percentage  (19.4 percent in '09, down nearly four points from '08), as well as his rise in contact rate (77.4 percent in '09). If this guy gets traded to a neutral park, he'll be a top 10 fantasy player and could be had next year in the third round or later.

Chris Coghlan, 2B/OF, Marlins: In my opinion, he is this year's Rookie of the Year, hands down. He's been outstanding since getting the call in May, posting a line of .312/9/44 with 76 runs scored and seven steals. With Dan Uggla rumored to be the next Marlins player on the way out, Cogs could find himself in the middle infield for good next season, which would greatly raise his value. Expect an average of at least .285, 10-15 homers, and nearly 100 runs scored next season, with an surge in steals probable as he continues to mature.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals: I may be in the minority here, but I think he's the best third base option in fantasy baseball in the National League.  His peripherals show that his production in '09 is what you should expect from him going forward, a consistent line of .290/30/110. Those who may challenge him for that top spot (Wright and Reynolds) have too many warts. He'll return full value and then some next season.

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Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs: Consider '09 a lost year due to a balky knee, and begin looking ahead to next season and the bargain price he could be going for. He suffered from a slightly unlucky BABIP of .280, which helped contribute to his dip in average. Also, his HR/FB percentage dropped from 17.1 in  '08 to a career low of 11.5, helping contribute to his drop in home runs. He'll be hitting in the middle of the Cubs order next season, so many more RBI chances are on the horizon. I see no reason why he can't post a line of .275/35/100 with double digit steals if his health cooperates in 2010.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets: Injuries wiped away most of his season, but his line of .330/10/46 and 11 steals in 291 at-bats is pretty darn good. His BABIP is high at .360, but even as it normalizes he is still a .285-.290 hitter. There is a lot of talk of his power declining, but he is still good for 25 bombs, with 30 possible. I believe he has two or three good seasons left, and should be undervalued next season on draft day.

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Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: I could do a whole piece on this guy. You won't find player I loathe more than Reynolds, mainly because of all the ridiculous hype surrounding him by fan-boys who don't understand his peripherals. His high BABIP of .346 led to his average being a mirage for most of the season. He is the bona-fide “Whiff Kin,” with 210 strikeouts (and counting) this season, and K-rate of 38 percent. His contact rate is horrible at 62.2 percent, and his HR/FB percent sits at 27.5 percent (up from 18.2), and abnormality that he won't repeat. He never stole more than two bases in a season in the minors, so don't expect this speed to be a permanent fixture in his arsenal. Best case scenario is that he is the National League version of Carlos Pena, which is valuable, but not elite. I can think of three third basemen in the National League alone that I'd draft ahead of him.