Weekend Picks: Will Florida, Northwestern Be Barking In Conference Title Games?

Starting at a new company is exciting and terrifying.

All the things you’ve done over the years lead you to a place like NESN. It’s a tremendous opportunity to help mainstream sports betting content at a regional powerhouse.

On the flip side, if you bring more losers than winners to your first picks party, that’s far from the best first impression. And don’t get it twisted, this is a results-oriented business.

The best sports bettors in the world shoot for a 55 percent success rate. That offsets the vigorish (or juice) on losses at -110 and allows them to build their bankrolls accordingly. Those bettors would kill for 60 percent.

“But that’s 40 losses out of 100!” you’re probably thinking.

Correct.

As long as there’s a mutual understanding that I’m going to win a lot of games and lose a lot of games, we’re cool.

Alright, enough beating around the bush.

SEC Championship: Florida vs. Alabama (-17.5, 74.5)

Florida +17 (-110)
Florida 1H +10 (+100)

I hate how much I love Florida in this spot. The Gators come into the SEC Championship fresh off a brutal home loss to LSU as a 23-point favorite. Florida clearly didn’t take their lesser opponent all that seriously, but their biggest regret was not clearing tight end Kyle Pitts to play. Head coach Dan Mullen erred on the side of caution and the 6-foot-6, 240-pound weapon was unavailable for an offense that truly missed his services. In seven games this season, Pitts has caught 36 passes for 641 yards and 11 touchdowns. Guys like that don’t grow on trees — they’re irreplaceable. Give me all those points with accurate senior quarterback Kyle Trask and an offense that will get into the end zone at least four times. Alabama’s going to score points, but so will Florida. I like the Gators to cover the first half and the game.  

Big Ten Championship: Northwestern vs. Ohio State (-20, 57)

Northwestern +20 (-110)

The new guy is picking against Alabama and Ohio State? What’s his deal? Northwestern is a team that I’ve historically loved to pick against in meaningful games. More times than not, they’ve been overmatched on both sides of the ball and the superior team eventually pulls away. There’s something different about this Cats team though. They’ve got a punishing defense that is not easy to score on and they’ve got absolutely nothing to lose. Northwestern is playing with house money and they’ve relished in this role all season long. Pat Fitzgerald is going to throw everything in the playbook at Ohio State’s defense and then some — think wide receivers throwing touchdown passes, that sort of thing. Also, don’t be surprised if there’s late-breaking COVID-related news at Ohio State. Rumors are swirling about a breakout that involves one of their best players. This line could be very well on the move tomorrow, so take +20 now.

Eagles at Cardinals (-6, 49)

Over 49 points (-110)

It’s too early to know if quarterback Jalen Hurts is the savior in Philly, but he’s certainly a step in the right direction for the Eagles’ offense. Hurts has the ability to move the chains with his legs and he’s proven to be a beacon of light when it comes to avoiding big, negative plays. Carson Wentz was sacked 50 times this year for negative 326 yards. That makes it extremely tough for an offense to get in a rhythm. Philadelphia is playing with more tempo and this much-needed mobile quarterback element will lead to more points. Arizona is going to score quite a bit too. The Cardinals are fourth in the league in total yards and they face a Philly secondary that was just decimated by injuries last Sunday. The Eagles lost starting cornerbacks Darius Slay (concussion) and Avonte Maddox (knee) and starting safety Rodney McLeod tore his ACL. Even if Slay is cleared to play, that’s a tall order against this Cardinals’ receiving core.

Good luck to us all.

RECORD: (0-0)