Super Bowl LV Odds: Why You Should Bet Over In Buccaneers-Chiefs

Two of the NFL’s best offenses will take the field at Raymond James Stadium for Super Bowl LV, and both bettors and football fans just hope it lives up to the hype.

Patrick Mahomes will lead the Kansas City Chiefs against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And with offensive talent all over the field — Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, etc. — it’s fair to assume we’re in for one of the more entertaining clashes in recent memory.

It also could be a game that feature a lot of points. With that said, here is why you should bet the over ahead of Buccaneers-Chiefs, with the line and total via consensus data:

(-3) Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 56.5

This year’s total is the third most in Super Bowl history. Only Super Bowl LI between the Patriots and Falcons (57.5) and Super Bowl XLIV between the Saints and Colts (57) weighed in higher.

New England, as you may remember, came back to not only cover the spread (-3) but also beat the line during the Patriots’ 34-28 overtime win in Super Bowl LI. The Saints were three-point dogs in their Super Bowl XLIV win, but didn’t beat the total in the 31-17 verdict.

The over has cashed in six times in the last 10 Super Bowls, too.

LIV: Chiefs beat 49ers 31-20, UNDER 53
LIII: Patriots beat Rams 13-3, UNDER 55.5
LII: Eagles beat Patriots 41-33, OVER 49
LI: Patriots beat Falcons 34-28, OVER 57.5
50: Broncos beat Panthers 24-10, UNDER 43
XLIX: Patriots beat Seahawks 28-24, OVER 47.5
XLVIII: Seahawks beat Broncos 43-8, OVER 47.5
XLVII: Ravens beat 49ers 34-31, OVER 48
XLVI: Giants beat Patriots 21-17, UNDER 53
XLV: Packers beat Steelers 31-25, OVER 45

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Enough about the past, though, let’s look at how each team did against the total this season.

The Chiefs were 8-8 against the total during the regular season, but did go against some steeper numbers than others had to endure. That’s the price you pay with Mahomes and Co.

Kansas City lost to the total (57) in their first playoff game — 22-17 win over Browns — but some may say that could have ended differently if Mahomes didn’t leave midway through the third quarter with a concussion. The Chiefs then rebounded against the total in the AFC Championship (53.5), earning a 38-24 win over the Bills.

The Buccaneers measured in similarly, going 9-7 against the total during the regular season.

Tampa, however, eclipsed the total in two of their three postseason games including their playoff opener — a 31-23 win over the the Washington Football Team and total (45). Tampa and the Packers beat the threshold (51) in the NFC Championship, too.

Simply, the offenses have been more than impressive and should invoke confidence Sunday’s number could soar.

No team in the NFL recorded more yards or passing yards than the Chiefs during the regular season. They were sixth in points scored and tied for third in passing touchdowns. Kansas City also committed the fourth-fewest turnovers and their ability to score, whether it be by quick-strike or grind-it-out possessions, is up there with the best offenses in recent memory. Kansas City tallied 32 or more points in 10 games this season.

The Buccaneers were equally as impressive. Tampa finished the season third in points scored and seventh in yards. The Brady-led offense was just ahead of the Chiefs, finishing second in passing yards and passing touchdowns. They too were among the top groups in regards to fewest turnovers, which helped the Bucs score 30 points or more in 11 games.

Finally, the last time these two teams faced off in a Week 12 contest, the quick-strike scores, which are crucial when picking the over, were on display time and time again. There were four touchdowns of 30 or more yards including a pair of Tyreek Hill receptions which went for 75 and 44 yards. The Bucs had two of their own, too. Ronald Jones caught a 37-yard reception and Mike Evans found the end zone on a 31-yard score.

Oh yeah, and who doesn’t love to root for points?