MLB Odds: Betting Math Gives Red Sox 74 Percent Chance To Make Playoffs

The Boston Red Sox are getting more and more expensive to make the MLB Playoffs.

Last Tuesday, we discussed how Boston’s odds jumped from -150 to -175 after Travis Shaw’s walk-off grand slam against the Texas Rangers. So after that game, you would’ve had to lay $175 to win $100 on the Sox to clinch a postseason berth.

Fast forward to Monday and the price is substantially steeper to bet Boston. DraftKings Sportsbook is now dealing the Red Sox -280 to make the playoffs. That price implies a 74 percent chance of probability — up from 64 percent six days ago.

Betting mathematics continue to work against the Oakland Athletics, who haven’t made up any ground and might not get another start from righty Chris Bassitt this season. Bassitt took a 100 mph line drive off the face against the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 17.

Oakland playoff odds have almost tripled from +125 to +360 since early last week.

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Updated playoff betting odds via DraftKings
Yankees: Make -2000 / Miss +1000
Red Sox: Make -280 / Miss +225
Athletics: Make +360 / Miss -500
Mariners: Make +1500 / Miss -5000

Baseball Reference projects Boston to finish with 91 wins and Oakland with 89.

“The Red Sox are still in the driver’s seat for that second Wild Card spot,” one professional bettor told NESN. “It’s far from a sure thing that they get in, but they’ve got a much more productive lineup than the A’s and an easier schedule down the stretch. That said, they still have to show up against the (Tampa Bay) Rays. If they get swept in this four-game series, that will speak volumes.”

There’s really not a wager that you should make at this very moment. The time to buy a Boston playoff ticket was last week at -150 or -175 and there’s absolutely no way I would tell you to lay -280 right now. That’s the equivalent of buying a stock at $44 when it was $25 a week ago. If anything, you can see what happens in this four-game set with Tampa and buy the dip if the Sox give up a little ground.

Always bet the right team at the right price.