Dec. 28 Bowl Betting Preview: Mike Leach’s Quest For Revenge; More Holiday Bowl Madness?

Here’s a quick betting preview for all of the college football bowl games on Tuesday, Dec. 28.

Birmingham Bowl (noon ET) — No. 20 Houston vs. (-2) Auburn, 51

One storyline to watch: Where does motivation fall into intangibles battle?
Auburn beat then-No. 10 Ole Miss on Oct. 30 to improve to 6-2 on the season with its only defeats coming to Penn State and Georgia. Brett McMurphy, at the time, projected a Gator Bowl appearance with the potential for an even more prestigious berth still very much in the cards. Then, the Tigers lost their final four games and find themselves playing a noon ET game against Houston instead. Quarterback Bo Nix is done for the season, too, after both injury and entering the transfer portal. Finding motivation for Auburn won’t be easy; at this point, pride might be the biggest factor. On the other side, Houston fell short of a dream season by losing to CFP-bound Cincinnati in the conference title game. A 12-win season with a win over an SEC team would be a great end to a solid campaign for Houston, but this also will be a road game in Birmingham against a program with a rabid fanbase that doesn’t have to travel far.

One trend to know: SEC teams (Auburn) favored by 3.5 points or less are 32-10 straight-up and 28-13-1 against the spread in bowl games since 2002 (per VSiN).

Pick: Houston +2
The hope or belief here is Houston relishes the challenge of playing in a sold-out stadium with a chance to knock off a legitimate SEC power in Auburn. That the Tigers will be without potential first-round pick Roger McCreary on defense doesn’t hurt Houston’s case, either, as the cornerback is considered the best player on the Tigers’ entire team. Houston also will be down a top corner, but the loss of Nix really ends up being the difference, as the Cougs find a way to get by in a low-scoring affair.

First Responder Bowl (3:15 p.m.) — Air Force vs. (-1.5) Louisville, 55

One storyline to watch: Ground and pound … over and over and over
These two teams really like to run. No one leans more on the rushing attack than Air Force, who led the entire nation in run-play percentage, electing to keep it on the ground a staggering 87% of the time. Louisville looks like an air raid offense by comparison, though the Cardinals’ 56.4% run-play selection ranks just outside the top 40 in the country. This game should fly by, putting an even greater emphasis on winning key battles like third down or in the red zone.

One trend to know: ACC teams (Louisville) are 10-4 SU and ATS against Group of 5 opponents in bowl games with point spreads between +3 and -3 (per VSiN).

Pick: Air Force +1.5
You obviously don’t want to overreact to one game, but the last time we saw Louisville, the Cardinals were getting absolutely pasted by in-state rival Kentucky. The Wildcats absolutely steamrolled Louisville, running it 49 times for 362 yards, a cool 7.4 yards per carry. Obviously, they have had a month to fix those issues, but add in the service academies’ tendency to show up and play well in bowl games, and it’s hard to not like Air Force.

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Liberty Bowl (6:45 p.m.) — Texas Tech vs. (-9.5) Mississippi State, 58.5

One storyline to watch: Mike Leach looks for his revenge
This will be the first time Leach has faced his former employer since the controversy that ultimately ended his tenure in Lubbock. As is often the case in divorce, there was squabbling over money, and Leach even insists Texas Tech still owes him some dough.

“They still owe me for 2009, the last time they won nine games, so maybe they’ll deliver the check. So we’ll see what happens (at the bowl game),” Leach told reporters earlier in December, per ESPN.com. He also said the school “cheated” him out of his money, while calling the university “sleazy.”

As is typically the case when Leach is involved, he has become bigger than the actual game and players themselves, which might be how he likes it, to be honest. Whether he can transfer that bitterness to his players as motivation to win this game remains to be seen, but Leach certainly feels inspired to make a statement in Memphis.

One trend to know: Big 12 teams (Texas Tech) are 12-5 ATS in bowl games since 2006 as underdogs of 9 points or more (per VSiN).

Pick: Mississippi State -9.5
Yes, it’s a square pick, but there isn’t much about Texas Tech that inspires confidence here. The Red Raiders lost six of their final nine games with four of those losses coming by at least 21 points. They allowed 8.3 yards per pass attempt, good for 102nd in the country, and here comes an uptempo, pass-happy offense. And you have to imagine Leach won’t have much interest in taking it easy on his former employer.

Holiday Bowl (8 p.m.) — No. 18 UCLA vs. (-2) NC State, 60

One storyline to watch: A must-see quarterback showdown
Both teams will enter this one confident with their situation under center. Starting with UCLA, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrived as Chip Kelly implements his system in Westwood. Over his last two seasons, Thompson-Robinson has thrown for 33 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions while also rushing for nearly 1,000 yards. NC State’s Devin Leary isn’t the most physically imposing signal-caller at 6-foot-1, but he was remarkably efficient this season with 35 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. He was dynamite in the final two games of the regular season, throwing for 550 yards and six touchdowns without a pick in wins over UNC and Syracuse.

One trend to know: Pac-12 teams (UCLA) are 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS as underdogs in bowl games since 2015 (per VSiN).

Pick: OVER 60
The side is just too hard to pick in this one. NC State has the better team, but UCLA has some big-play potential and operates at a pretty quick pace. Thompson-Robinson personifies both of those things, and you have to expect he’ll be good for a few potentially game-changing chunk plays in San Diego. While the Bruins thrived on forcing turnovers, we talked about how Leary protects the ball, so NC State will have its chance to score plenty, too. This feels like another high-scoring Holiday Bowl shootout.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (10 p.m.) — West Virginia vs. (-5) Minnesota, 45

One storyline to watch: The Ciarrocca effect
West Virginia offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca is on the move after a lackluster season running the Mountaineers’ offense. His landing spot? That would be Minnesota, of course. Ciarrocca is returning to the Golden Gophers where he spent three seasons, as he followed P.J. Fleck from Western Michigan to Minnesota. Unsurprisingly, he won’t coach the bowl game, but you do have to wonder what kind of intelligence he might be able to provide his former (and now new) boss.

One trend to know: West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus teams with winning records (per The Athletic).

Pick: Minnesota -5
Both coaches have been quite good in their respective bowl game careers, but Fleck’s recent success in bowl games — outright underdog wins over Georgia Tech and Auburn — really stand out. The Gophers also enter this game on an impressive two-game run that included an upset win over Wisconsin to end the regular season. Minnesota has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and that was the season opener against Ohio State. This is the sort of defense West Virginia isn’t used to facing in the Big 12, and that could make the difference Tuesday night in Phoenix.