Why Patriots’ Standing As Super Bowl Betting ‘Favorite’ Is Slightly Misleading
'"It's not that the Patriots are the best team, (oddsmakers) just don't want to write any more bets on New England'
The New England Patriots are proving to be a fascinating case study in the difference between the reality of the NFL and the sport’s betting markets.
It appears Bill Belichick’s rebuild already is coming full circle. A Monday night win in Buffalo has put New England in the driver’s seat to not only win the AFC East, but there’s also a strong possibility the Pats can lock up the No. 1 seed in the conference.
If that were the case, of course, the AFC road to the Super Bowl would travel that familiar path down Route 1 in Foxboro. As such, the Patriots are back to a familiar place in betting circles: Super Bowl favorites.
As mentioned earlier this week, the Patriots are now co-favorites alongside the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs at 5-1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas.
“Most people laughed in football circles in the offseason when Belichick retooled the roster around power, defense and the running in a league where everyone passes for 5,000 yards and plays on speed,” NESN betting analyst Sam Panayotovich said on this week’s episode of “The Spread” podcast. “He did it a different way — and everybody laughed.”
He who laughs last laughs the loudest, though, and some keen bettors saw preseason value in the Patriots, taking a calculated risk on a head coach who was taking his own risk. Belichick turned the team over to rookie quarterback Mac Jones and after some early-season bumps in the road, the Patriots have very much found their identity.
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The blind faith in Belichick may pay off in a big way for some.
“(The sportsbooks) are trying to write bets on anybody that isn’t Tampa Bay, Kansas City or New England,” Panayotovich said. “(The Westgate) took a bunch of big bets on the Patriots at 40-1 in late August, including a $20,000 bet to win $800,000.”
The Patriots, for what it’s worth, are 7-1 at both DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook, right behind Tampa Bay and Kansas City.
There are ebbs and flows to the NFL season, too, and the market — regarding most teams, at least — is fluid. It wasn’t long ago the Los Angeles Rams with trendy MVP pick Matthew Stafford looked like a good bet to become the second team in as many years to host a Super Bowl. Then the injury bug bit, and the Rams have lost three of their last five to fall two games out of the NFC West race.
“I look at who (oddsmakers) are slowly pushing out and the Rams when they got Von Miller, they were 7-1, 8-1 — they’re 12-1 (now),” Panayotovich said on “The Spread” regarding the current market. “The Bills have been pushed down. The Bills at one point I think were favorites. If you go back to Halloween, the Bills were favored to win the Super Bowl. They’re now 14-1. And the other team that has been pushed out is the Baltimore Ravens. … Those three teams in the eyes of oddsmakers, at this point, they’re saying ‘Go ahead and bet them.’ There’s a reason they’re giving you the Rams at 12, the Bills at 14 and the Ravens at 16. They’re telling you by raising those numbers those teams are not going to win the Super Bowl.”
Which brings us back to the Patriots. Their standing as a Super Bowl contender in 2021-22 is impossible to deny. They are for real. But we can also poke holes — to an extent. New England has made the most of some fortunate situations, like playing a hilariously banged-up Titans team before biblical Buffalo weather that played right into their run-heavy attack.
Their standing as a “Super Bowl favorite” is a combination of things, but when looking at the odds, don’t forget the role action has in leading to the numbers you see on the screens.
“It’s not that the Patriots are the best team, (oddsmakers) just don’t want to write any more bets on New England,” Panayotovich explained. “So, let’s write them up, make them 5-1 and if you want to bet them at 5-1, come on down. The Patriots should not be 5-1, and I think everyone should understand that.”
The preseason value is long gone, and a 5-1 wager on a rookie quarterback to win the Super Bowl feels … aggressive. That being said, if there was any team who could make it worthwhile, it’s almost always going to be these Patriots.
