NASCAR Betting Picks, Predictions For Ruoff Mortgage 500 In Phoenix

One thing is for certain early in this NASCAR season: There’s Kyle Larson, and then there’s everybody else.

Although Larson wasn’t able to pull out a victory this past Sunday, he was right there at the end with his Hendrick Motorsports teammate and eventual race winner Alex Bowman on the final restart. Bookmakers have noticed, which is why Larson is the favorite (again) as the NASCAR Cup Series hits Phoenix Raceway for Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500.

If you’re looking to go off the beaten path with your picks — or even if you’re not — here are some options to wager.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ben Watanabe
Kevin Harvick, top three +500
There’s no such thing as a sure bet, but there are few safer options at Phoenix than Harvick. He hasn’t won there since 2018, but you need to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time he finished outside the top 10. Harvick hasn’t been nearly as dominant at Phoenix in a Ford as he was in a Chevrolet, when he won four in a row and six of eight in one stretch, but he’s never a non-factor.

Mike Cole
Aric Almirola (-110) over Alex Bowman
I’m using a bigger piece of my nonexistent bankroll to hopefully get back on the winning track. Almirola has been impressively consistent this season with top-10 finishes in each of the three races. He also does well at Phoenix, with his average finish here being higher than any other track for his career. Conversely, I feel OK fading the potentially trendy Bowman after his win, especially considering he has just one top-10 finish at an average 24th-place finish for his career at Phoenix.

Dakota Randall
Christopher Bell, top three +700
Bell struggled in his first two races this season but finished 10th last weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, potentially giving him momentum ahead of the fourth race. This pick might be a bit of a reach, but recent context indicates Bell could be in for a strong day. The 27-year-old has two top-10 finishes in four Cup starts at Phoenix, and he has three top-fives, including one win, in five Xfinity Series starts at the mile-long oval. Plus, Toyota drivers have won five of the last 10 races at Phoenix.