Home Run Odds: Will Aaron Judge Break Roger Maris’ Yankee Record?

Aaron Judge has a shot to break a 61-year-old New York Yankees team record.

Roger Maris famously slugged 61 homers in 1961 to shatter Babe Ruth’s single-season home run record. Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa have mashed more taters since, but Maris’ Yankee mark still stands for the most long balls hit by a Bronx Bomber in one campaign. But Judge is coming.

The four-time All-Star crushed a grand slam Wednesday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates — his first homer in a week — and currently has 30 homers in 80 games played this season. The gargantuan slugger was on pace to slug 66 homers in early June and even after a relative slump, he’s still on pace for the low 60s.

Caesars Sportsbook is taking bets on whether or not Judge will break Maris’ record.

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Aaron Judge odds via Caesars:
Over 61.5 homers (+475)
Under 61.5 homers (-700)

Those odds tell you that Caesars’ trading room isn’t exactly a believer in Judge setting a new Yankee record. You’ve got to lay $700 to win $100 that he doesn’t hit 62, which is not something I would advise. Regression towards Judge’s preseason total (O/U 37.5) feels almost inevitable, but that price stinks.

If anything, I would wait things out and see if Judge heats up in the coming weeks. It’s extremely possible that Judge hits five or six homers in a week, at which point the betting juice will shift accordingly.

For example, I know somebody who bet ‘Under’ 62.5 at -130 a couple weeks ago. That’s not too shabby considering the current market is ‘Under’ 61.5 at -700. The right bet at the right price is paramount.

I would imagine you could go ‘Under’ 61.5 homers at -200 or lower if Judge takes full advantage of 90-degree weather and breezy Yankee Stadium during the month of July. If he’s got around 37 or 38 homers by month’s end, the odds will look a whole lot different.

Now is not the time to short Judge, but I’ll be ready to pounce if he goes on a tear.