While I always like to remind new bettors that “trends aren’t predictive,” they sometimes can lead you to find an edge. It also is important to remember that just because a team is considered or viewed to be one of the best in baseball, it doesn’t always mean they’re profitable when it comes to betting.
For example, the Toronto Blue Jays had a ton of preseason hype but are the fourth-least profitable team in all of baseball on the moneyline. With a winning record of 45-42 (38-31 as a favorite), they’re losing you almost as much money on the moneyline as some of the worst teams in baseball, like the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals.
On the flip side, the Baltimore Orioles entered the 2022 season as World Series long shots at +25000, AL East longshots at +15000 and BetMGM bookmakers set their regular-season win total at 62.5. Now, four months into the season, with an offense ranking in the bottom third of the league (24th in wRC+) and a team ERA ranking in the bottom half (3.96), the Orioles might not be a team you would think could make you money. You would be wrong. Baltimore is the second-most profitable moneyline team behind the Yankees. They hold the best run-line record in baseball (55-32), covering 63.2% of the time.
A trend to keep in mind as well: Baltimore is 8-2 as favorites. Again, this doesn’t mean you should blindly bet them as favorites based on that trend alone, but it can be a good starting point to finding an edge. Despite their success as favorites, their current record is 43-44, with 35 of their 43 wins coming as an underdog. A win as an underdog means you’re cashing in at “plus money,” which leads to even greater profit. Remember that in baseball, even the worst teams in the league can still win around 60 games. Last season, the Orioles and Diamondbacks had the fewest wins in baseball, but still finished the season with 52 victories, the majority of those coming as underdogs. If you can find an edge on an underdog like right now with the Orioles, you are able to possibly cash in on good value.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are another team that had a win total in the 60s before the 2022 season started. They are currently sitting at 36 wins, yet they are still the 10th-most profitable team, right behind the Red Sox, if you blindly bet them on the moneyline.
Of course, you should never blindly bet on any team, but this information can be used as a starting point. Before knowing their success with the following trends, you might have automatically looked to fade (bet against) the Orioles or Pirates. Now, instead, you might open your eyes to an edge with them instead.
