Does Betting Public Know Something About Derek Carr That We Don’t?

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is good at what he does. But can he ever become the best? The betting public seems to think so.

According to BetMGM data specialist Drew O’Dell, Carr is the betting favorite to lead the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns in the 2022 season. The 31-year old represents 22.1% of the bets and 30.3% of the handle placed on the passing yards leader, while simultaneously representing 15.1% of the bets and 16% of the handle placed on the passing touchdowns leader.

A partial explanation for Carr’s standing is the fact that he was reunited with former college teammate Davante Adams this offseason. Adams is viewed by many as the best wide receiver in the NFL and will undoubtedly form a great trio alongside tight end Darren Waller and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow. But, taking a look at Carr’s 2021 stats still make it hard to see how he could make such a dramatic jump.

Carr finished fifth in the NFL in total passing yards in 2021 with 4,804 — a tremendous number — but threw only 23 touchdowns, good for 13th-best. If you wanted to add Adams’ totals from last year to Carr’s, he would still fall well short of Tom Brady’s top mark in touchdowns.

“Perhaps he has incredible odds,” you say. “Not really,” I answer.

Here are the odds leaders for both passing yards and touchdowns.

Yards
Tom Brady: +800
Justin Herbert: +800
Patrick Mahomes: +800
Matthew Stafford: +850
Joe Burrow: +1000
Derek Carr: +1000
Dak Prescott: +1200
Josh Allen: +1200
Aaron Rodgers: +1600
Russell Wilson: +1600

Touchdowns
Justin Herbert: +550
Josh Allen: +600
Tom Brady: +650
Matthew Stafford: +900
Patrick Mahomes: +900
Joe Burrow: +900
Aaron Rodgers: +1000
Dak Prescott: +1400
Russell Wilson: +1600
Derek Carr: +1800

Sure, maybe Carr would net a big return if he led the league in touchdowns, but he fell short by 20 in 2021. No amount of Adams’ or Waller’s or Renfrow’s can make up that sort of deficit. Perhaps the betting public knows something the rest of us don’t.