Bills-Rams DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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Multiplier Options:

Josh Allen will be the highest-owned option as he is projected to see the highest point total for the slate, given his dual-threat abilities. This should be the safest play at this spot, given the added rushing upside that Allen gives us and the well-spread, high-volume passing approach. Out of Allen’s potential weapons, Stefon Diggs makes the most sense at the multiplier spot, given his consistent high volume. 

Matthew Stafford looks to be the highest-owned Ram at the multiplier, and we know that Sean McVay’s pass-first approach gives him immense value. Cooper Kupp is expected to see a 30% target share which he often surpassed last season, and we know how reliant Stafford is on him in the red zone, so he is always a safe play in this spot. Allen Robinson could be another name to watch in this spot as a cost-effective option. He has the highest optimal probability of any player on the slate not named Allen, Stafford, Kupp, or Diggs while not being expected to be absurdly owned. 

FLEX Targets:

Kupp and Robinson offer high receiving upsides given their expected 30%/24% target share split. Kupp is twice as expensive as Robinson on DraftKings, so opting to pair both options could be a feasible play if you are willing to eat Kupp’s cost. Down the depth chart, Tutu Atwell and Ben Skowronek are options at sub-$2,000 on DraftKings to fill the void of Van Jefferson. We project Atwell to get the edge in terms of targets, but both are minimally priced and should see the field a reasonable amount. 

Diggs and Gabe Davis will see a substantial volume of looks from Allen, making them both valuable options with significant upsides. Still, Isaiah McKenzie will have a considerable influence on this slate. You’ll be getting great value on DraftKings with his $2,400 salary, but expect him to see significant ownership. He won the starting slot job and has been one of the highlights from the Bills training camp with repeated praise from his QB, so it might be too good of a financial break to pass up. If you are looking for a Bills WR to ping down the depth chart, Khalil Shakir looks to be a potential option, as Jamison Crowder is too pricey on DraftKings to have value. 

This game doesn’t feature any workhorse back, but Cam Akers and Devin Singletary are both each team’s expected lead back. Akers will be $1,000 more than Singletary and should see more of a workload, so it is worth dishing out the extra $1,000 if you are looking to play a running back. Darrel Henderson will also have a role tonight but shouldn’t eclipse ten carries. James Cook could be a solid option, given his $2,800 salary. A lot has been made of his potential receiving work, so he could be a high upside play given the offered affordability and concrete RB2 role. 

As Stafford’s third option, Tyler Higbee is another enticing option at only a $5,600 price. Higbee averaged seven targets per game over his last seven games of the season and could be a significant factor tonight. Last season, the Bills allowed the fourth most touchdowns in the league to the tight end position, so banking on a potential red zone upside could be a strong play.

Dawson Knox has a desirable red-zone upside that could make him a fair play in an expected high-scoring affair. However, the Rams defended the tight end spot well last season, allowing the sixth-fewest targets to tight ends. That also doesn’t include the fact that the Rams considerably upped their tight end coverage this offseason with Bobby Wagner. Stacking Knox with Allen is almost necessary due to Knox’s touchdown dependence. 

Given the expected scoring of this game, this might not be the ideal game to play a defense in your lineups, but both teams have strong kickers worthy of some exposure.