NFL Odds: Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 8

Week 8 of the NFL season is here, and we are just days away from the trade deadline.

It’s hard to believe we’ll see anything that tops the Carolina Panthers’ decision to trade Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers, but given how open the playoff race is in both conferences, it could be a wild few days. But there’s one more week of action for teams to decide whether to buy or sell.

In diving through the NFL Week 8 slate, we once again picked out three games in which we’d think twice before betting or picking the favorite. Here are those three games.

(-2) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos (in London)
The idea of the Jaguars has been much better than the actual results. If you look at a lot of the stats, especially the advanced ones, the Jags look like a really good team. They’re ninth in the NFL in DVOA, and their 3.6 expected wins are almost double their 2-5 record. However, they don’t hand out playoff spots on expected wins. The bottom line is Jacksonville is just tough to trust. Trevor Lawrence has flashed his potential at times, but he’s also made a lot of careless mistakes with the football. Some of this has to fall on head coach Doug Pederson, who isn’t quite maximizing the talent on that roster. Jacksonville could right the ship at any moment, a regression to the mean of some sorts. But it might be a stay-away until the team proves that actually can happen. This week, a London trip to take on a borderline elite Denver defense is a tough place to back the Jags. And as bad as Russell Wilson has looked, Denver is better with him under center if he can return.

(-1.5) New England Patriots at New York Jets
In the past, it was quite clear how this thing would go. The Patriots, coming off an embarrassing primetime loss, would get all kinds of right while feasting on a traditionally hapless team led by an unproven quarterback. By 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Patriots would be up 28-10, and all would seem right with the world again. And that still could happen. The Jets are winning in spite of quarterback Zach Wilson, who had a quarterback rating of 37.1 in two games against the Patriots last season. New England won those games by a combined score of 79-19. It could be even more difficult with the loss of Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner Breece Hall and offensive tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker. But here’s the thing: The Patriots on Monday night just showed those sorts of sure things are anything but at this point. A home game against Chicago seemed like the layup of all layups, regardless of quarterback. And that’s the other thing: We don’t know who will take snaps for the Patriots in the Meadowlands, and we can’t trust it will be handled in the best way possible. It’s also a short week for the Patriots on the road in the division against a team returning home after two big road wins of its own. There’s a lot of potential volatility here, historical narratives be damned.

(-3) Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
Do you really want to step in front of the Giants train right now? Nothing about it is especially pretty, but they’re getting the job done. Daniel Jones is kind of emblematic of the whole thing: He ranks 23rd in the NFL with 1,223 passing yards, but his 62.7 QBR ranks sixth. Saquon Barkley looks like an All-Pro again with Brian Daboll pulling all the right offensive levers. The defense will get tested this week against the surprisingly upstart Seattle offense. The Giants are bottom-five when it comes to stopping the run, and Kenneth Walker III looks like the second coming of Barry Sanders. So it’s hard to feel great about picking a Giants outright win here, but it’s also hard to fade them given how they keep finding ways to compete.