MLB 2023 Best Bets: Season-Long Baseball Wagers We’re Making

Break out the bunting: The 2023 MLB season is finally here, and it’s good to have baseball back in our lives every day.

The long march toward October officially begins Thursday. From a betting standpoint, bettors are running out of time to get to the window and place their season-long bets, whether it’s a futures wager, win total or anything in between.

If you’re doing any last-minute shopping, the NESNBets.com crew has its best bets for the 2023 campaign below.

Sam Panayotovich: San Diego Padres OVER 93.5 wins (-105)
This is the year it all comes together in San Diego. The pitching staff is strong and the lineup is as deep as any in baseball No. 1 through 5. And that’s not even counting the return of perennial MVP candidate Fernando Tatis, Jr. near the end of April. The Dodgers are still division favorites, but the Padres are closing the gap.

Claudia Bellofato: Yankees Under 94.5 Regular Season Wins (-105, BetMGM)
What looked like the best rotation heading into this season is already down three starters with injuries. On offense, the lineup led by Aaron Judge was very hit-or-miss last season — literally. After the All-Star break, Judge continued to light it up with a .349/.502/.785 (batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage) batting line while his teammates slashed .223/.292/.360. Judge was hitting at a historic rate while his teammates performed well below average. If the other Yankees carry that same underwhelming production to the 2023 season, more losses should be expected. Plus, it’ll be difficult for Judge to recreate his unforgettable 2022 season on top of the possibility of injury. A few games or weeks out for any player in their top-heavy lineup could very likely lead to an under on a win total that is only four games under what they produced in a healthy and historic Aaron-Judge-reliant season.

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Mike Cole: Spencer Strider to win National League Cy Young Award (+1000, FanDuel)
The questions about Strider are fair, especially regarding his arsenal that largely consists of just two pitches. That didn’t seem to matter in 2022, when he struck out a ridiculous 202 batters in just 131 2/3 innings. He split time in both the rotation and bullpen, but as a starter, he went 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 20 starts. If he stays healthy and relatively the same in terms of effectiveness, a line of 16-6 with a 2.90 ERA and 230 strikeouts should definitely put him in that Cy Young conversation.

Ben Watanabe: Seattle Mariners UNDER 86.5 wins (+110)
Excitement is high around the Mariners, and I get it. They’re coming off their second consecutive 90-win season and a fun AL Wild Card Series victory. But with a more balanced schedule, they won’t have the luxury of playing almost half their games against the AL West. They were 41-35 with a plus-37 run differential in the division last year. I put Seattle in a category with Cleveland, as teams that still should be in the mix for a postseason spot, but with more modest win-loss records because they can’t beat up on weak divisional opponents as often.

Jason Ounpraseuth: Yordan Alvarez to win American League MVP (+1200, FanDuel)
Alvarez might not put up the historic numbers Aaron Judge put up last season, but he’s plenty capable of matching him in what should be a regression year for the New York Yankees star. This will be the best price you’re going to get on the Houston Astros slugger, who should be a top-three MVP candidate like he was last season.

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Ricky Doyle: José Ramírez to win American League MVP (+1500)
Ramírez has finished among the top six in AL MVP voting in five of the past six seasons. He trails only Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts and Mike Trout in fWAR since the beginning of 2017. And he’s in the thick of his prime — entering his age-30 campaign — on a Cleveland Guardians team favored to win the American League Central. Yet, six players have shorter odds to bring home the award, offering decent value on a stud who’s both consistently excellent and still extremely underrated.

Sean McGuire: San Diego Padres best regular-season record (+850, FanDuel)
The Padres feel like a lock to make the playoffs and, at least on paper, are deeper than just about anyone. It paves the way to not only win the National League West but considering the NL East will beat up on each other all season, San Diego’s path to the No. 1 seed is attainable. With a starting lineup highlighted by Yu Darvish and Blake Snell along with a lineup featuring Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto and Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. eligible to return in late April, the Padres’ level of high-end talent is unmatched.

Keagan Stiefel: Yordan Alvarez home run leader (+1000, DraftKings)
I don’t think Aaron Judge comes close to his production from one year ago. If Alvarez keeps pace with what he always does but stays healthy, he’ll clear 50.