Magical Michael Block Sequel? Don’t Bet On It At Colonial

Even if you consider yourself a “Blockhead,” you might want to think twice about betting Michael Block at the PGA Tour’s Charles Schwab Challenge this weekend at Colonial.

Block’s 15 minutes of fame aren’t yet completed. The PGA teaching pro has parlayed his incredible PGA Championship performance, where he finished tied for 15th last week at Oak Hill, into a sponsor’s exemption for this week’s Tour stop.

The 46-year-old has been the talk of golf — even overshadowing PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka in some regards — and will try to keep the good vibes going this week in Texas. While that might be a great story, don’t bet on another Cinderella story this weekend.

In fact, you literally might not want to bet on Block having success.

As good as the story has been, it’s comical how much love Block is getting in the betting market. As of Wednesday afternoon, Block is +240 at FanDuel Sportsbook to make the cut this weekend. The plus money might be tempting, but this is a full field of Tour golfers at a course where guys tend to go pretty low. The exception was last year when Sam Burns won at 9-under, but in the four years prior to that, the winning score was no worse than 13-under, with Justin Rose even winning at 20-under in 2018.

Last week, at the challenging PGA Championship setup, Block’s main objective was to avoid disaster, and he did so admirably. This week, he’s probably going to have to post a number or two. He’s certainly talented enough to do that, but there’s also a reason he’s not on Tour.

The Block situation also speaks to the importance of shopping around when betting on golf or any sport. Bettors who believe Block is about to come crashing back to earth look like they’ll find a better number at DraftKings Sportsbook, while there’s more value on Block to make the cut at FanDuel.

To make the cut
FanDuel Sportsbook +240
DraftKings Sportsbook +160

To miss the cut
FanDuel -320
DraftKings -250

One element of the Block story that has been slightly overlooked is that he’s no stranger to professional golf. He has made 25 career starts, including three this season. He missed the cut at both the American Express and Farmers, each by three shots, already this season. Block has just five career made cuts in 25 events.

Prior to the PGA, the last cut Block made came at the 2015 Barbasol Championship, an opposite-field event (opposite the Open Championship). The OWGR field rating for that tournament was 12.0, and the highest-ranked golfer in the field was Emiliano Grillo, who ranked No. 98 in the world. This week’s tournament has a field rating of 276.64, with nine of the top 20 players, including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.

Obviously, Block is priced to miss the cut this weekend, and you have to lay some pretty serious juice because of that. But there’s also no reason to believe he can do this two weeks in a row. Block ranked sixth in the entire field at the PGA in strokes gained putting, as everything seemed to fall on the greens. You also should consider he’s been focusing on everything but his game with nonstop media appearances since last week.

One potential option is parlaying Block to miss the cut with a slumping player like Maverick McNealy, who has made just two cuts since February. A parlay of the two pays out at +183 at FanDuel.

Or you could just completely buy into the Hollywood script and chase the Block 500-1 to win number.