Season-Long Betting Trends Make For Clear Choice In Celtics-Heat Series

The Celtics entered their Eastern Conference finals matchup with the Heat as an overwhelming favorite.

Boston was given -500 odds to punch its ticket to the NBA Finals at BetMGM Sportsbook prior to the start of the series, while Miami had the much more favorable number of +375. That much alone likely led to the 50/50 split that BetMGM saw on series bets, with the Heat (+8.5) commanding 73% of the bets and 66% of the handle on wagers against the spread for Game 1, right?

Well, it goes a little deeper than that.

In defeating the Celtics in Game 1 at TD Garden, the Heat improved to 9-3 against the spread in their 12 playoff games, according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing. That is the best mark in the NBA. Boston, on the other hand, suffered its 26th loss as a favorite over the course of their 96 total games, per Ewing. It marks the most in the NBA.

That’s not good for the Celtics.

The ugly loss has led to some shuffling of odds in favor of the Heat. While Miami is still the underdog, they moved from +375 to +175 following the win while Boston fell from -500 to -225. Those aren’t favorable for Miami bettors, but the Heat have still commanded 79% of all money placed on the Eastern Conference finals at BetMGM.

The Celtics will enter Game 2 as a nine-point favorite with the Heat’s moneyline number ranging from +310 to +325. We have an idea of who the money will favor.