Is Potential Running Back Revolt Impacting NFL Betting Market?

Two of the NFL’s most productive running backs now have their respective 2023 campaigns tiptoeing the sideline.

Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs finished with the most rushing yards in the NFL last season. You can get him 18-1 to repeat at WynnBet Sportsbook.

New York Giants star Saquon Barkley finished fourth in rushing yards and ninth in rushing touchdowns despite playing one less game than just about everyone. Barkley can be found 14-1 at WynnBet to lead the league in rushing and 14-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook to score the most touchdowns on the ground.

Having the same success this season is no sure thing, however. Especially since both players currently are not under contract and unhappy about receiving the franchise tag. Barkley has publicly said he will have to think about holding out this season.

It begs the question: Does the uncertainty impact the betting market?

WynnBet vice president of trading Alan Berg isn’t concerned. Berg believes both Barkley and Jacobs will be on the field when the season starts. It’s why bettors continue to see Barkley and Jacobs priced with other top rushers.

“Reality is, traditionally, most guys who get franchise tagged end up playing. So we kind of don’t want to overreact too much,” Berg told NESN.com. “I don’t think there’s a whole lot of benefit moving your odds so high that you get bets and when they start Week 1 you wonder why you did that.”

Berg added: “I think at the end of the day these guys don’t want to pass up on $10 million this year.”

Barkley has made it clear he won’t be present at the start of New York’s training camp. But since neither Barkley nor Jacobs signed their franchise tender, their respective teams are not allowed to fine them for missing camp.

The likelihood those two stars miss training camp isn’t weighing on Berg either.

“When you’re an elite player like these guys are at their position, and you still have a lot of legs left, I would expect them to jump in Week 1 or Week 2 and be completely fine,” Berg said. “Yeah, there might be a small percentage increase odds-wise, but I don’t see it being a big deal.”

Berg said if either Barkley or Jacobs sees their respective odds change it probably would have just as much to do with the action coming in on others like Nick Chubb or Jonathan Taylor.

For those not as confident Barkley and Jacobs will play, Berg said he would target someone like Atlanta Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson or New England Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson, who are in the same neighborhood at 14-1 and 15-1, respectively.

“I think if you were on the opposite side of what I’m saying, I think you look in the same realm odds-wise,” Berg said. “If those guys (Barkley, Jacobs) disappeared I’m sure you’re looking at a little bit shorter price on Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor, but you’re also probably getting Robinson and Rhamondre closer to the 10-1 range at that point.”

NFL fans weren’t initially firing on either Barkley or Jacobs to lead the league in rushing. BetMGM revealed on June 28 Barkley represented just 2.3% of tickets while Jacobs was responsible for 1.5%. At the time, the favored Chub represented the most bets while Najee Harris had the largest handle.