Public Not Shy To Take Swings At College Football Playoff, Heisman

If there’s one thing you take from this article, it is that parity absolutely does not exist in college football.

I know the people on your television try to convince you every Saturday that it’s coming, but we can confidently say that it isn’t. There are the same few elite programs who will be in contention for the 2024 College Football Playoff that have been in it for the last decade, and when they expand to 12 teams in 2024 it will just make the same process longer.

There is a reason that only five programs have won a CFP National Championship in the last decade, and it has everything to do with the fact that parity isn’t a real thing in the sport. Just take a look at the odds board over at BetMGM Sportsbook.

2024 National Championship Odds
Georgia (+225)
Alabama (+600)
Ohio State (+700)
Michigan (+800)
LSU (+1200)
USC (+1400)
Clemson (+1800)
Florida State (+1800)
Texas (+2000)
Penn State (+2500)

That is just a list of the teams who have won the CFP, plus blue blood programs that should be good in theory but never really are.

We know this is a lot of yelling at clouds, but there are a ton of college football bettors who seemingly haven’t learned this lesson. The offseason hype machine obviously had its desired effect, as the betting board over at BetMGM looks like folks threw darts at a map before deciding on their eventual champion.

Michigan (16.2% ticket; 20.2% handle) is the favorite among bettors to take home the national title, according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing. In case you forgot, that is the team that lost in the CFP last year to TCU, who promptly got their brains beat in by Georgia. Oh yeah, speaking of the two-time defending national champions, they’re the fifth favorite (6.4%; 10%) among bettors this season, coming in behind Alabama (10.5%; 12.1%), Ohio State (10.2%; 9.3%) and LSU (10%; 9.1%). That isn’t even the craziest part, as Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes (who won one game in 2022) have commanded the sixth most (5.3%) bets at BetMGM.

We know what value is, but what are we doing?

If the bettors out there are looking for a little credit, we will say it looks like you’ve got the Heisman Trophy right. It is nearly impossible trying to find a 20-year-old that you think will put it all together to win the most prestigious prize in the sport, but it looks like the public has found a number of valuable bets.

2024 Heisman Trophy Odds
Caleb Williams — USC (+500)
Jayden Daniels — LSU (+900)
Quinn Ewers — Texas (+1100)
Michael Penix Jr. — Washington (+1200)
Cade Klubnik — Clemson (+1400)
Jordan Travis — Florida State (+1600)
Drake Maye — UNC (+1600)
Sam Hartman — Notre Dame (+1600)
Bo Nix — Oregon (+1600)

The safest bet is (obviously) Caleb Williams, who won the 2022 Heisman after joining forces with Lincoln Reilly at USC to reinvigorate a program that was steadily declining for 15 years. The options outside of him on that list are pretty weak, as bookmakers have made it clear that the Heisman is now a QB award.

There isn’t a single non-signal caller listed above, and that is because 19 of the last 23 winners have played quarterback. The betting public isn’t letting that fact stop them from placing large chunks of change on a non-QB to win the award. Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is the public’s favorite, commanding 8.7% of the tickets and 5.8% of the handle on the award. He’s the consensus best player in the sport, but coming into the season with a new quarterback is going to force him to have a record-breaking season to win the award. That is, however, very much in the cards.

There are clear trends that college football always seems to follow. The public doesn’t seem to care.