Nebraska Cornhuskers Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick

It’s still hard to believe how bad the Scott Frost era was. Nebraska was 19-37 over the past five seasons (16-31 in games coached by Frost) and has gone six straight years without making a bowl. The same Cornhuskers, one of college football‘s premier programs, that missed four bowls from 1962 to 2016! Thankfully for the Big Red faithful, it’s over, and the hire of Matt Rhule gives everyone reason for optimism going into the 2023 season and beyond. In many ways, it will look like old-school Huskers football. We’re talking huddles, a quarterback who can run, and hold your breath, the return of the fullback. The hope in Lincoln is that it also leads to a return to their winning ways.Nebraska Cornhuskers Preview

2022 Record: 4-8 (3-6); Big Ten Finish: 6th in B1G West

A.P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 49

Head Coach: Matt Rhule: 0-0 (0-0) | 1st Season | Overall: 47-43

Offensive Coordinator: Marcus Satterfield (1st Season)

Defensive Coordinator: Tony White (1st Season)

Nebraska Cornhuskers Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +30000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +20000

B1G Championship Odds: +7500 | B1G West Odds: +1400

Win 6+ Games: -195 | Undefeated Regular Season: +11000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 6.5 +114 | UNDER 6.5 -140

Big Ten West Previews: Iowa | Minnesota | Wisconsin | National Previews: Georgia | Notre Dame | USC

Big Ten East Previews: Indiana | Maryland | Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State | Penn State | Rutgers | 

Nebraska Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

The backs… running and corner. We know Rhule wants to run the ball, and there is no shortage of options. Workhorse Anthony Grant (218 carries) returns, and he looks to build on last season, which was up-and-down (five games over 5.0 YPC, five games below 3.0 YPC). He should be better in 2023, but he’s not even the starter. After much buzz about Gabe Ervin Jr. pushing for carries, Rhule announced he’s “clearly the No. 1 guy.” Finally, forgotten man Rahmir Johnson needs to be a more significant part of the offense after touching the football 20 times in 2022. But this isn’t Nebraska’s best position. That would be cornerback, led by Quinton Newsome, who is experienced and talented. Malcolm Hartzog took over the CB2 role during his freshman season. While he took some lumps, Hartzog flashed athleticism and toughness. He’s a keeper. Then there’s Tommi Hill, who lost the starting job but still has the eye of NFL scouts.

Nebraska Cornhuskers: Why You Should Be Bearish

Unlike Wisconsin, this is a rebuild. Over the last nine games of last season, the Huskers averaged 18.1 PPG and 293 YPG. That’s Iowa-level offense, and I’m not sure how much better the offensive line will be, with my biggest concern at tackle (128th in pass protection). They’re switching to a huddle-up offense with less tempo. Defensively, new DC Tony White is implementing a 3-3-5 scheme, and Rhule likes to use his full two deep. This a defense that struggled to create havoc last season and never finished in the top half of the Big Ten in scoring during Scott Frost’s tenure. There are serious questions about Nebraska’s top-level talent and depth. It didn’t help when talented WR Zavier Betts and last year’s second-leading tackler safety Myles Farmer left the team in August.

Breakout Player: TE Thomas Fidone II, Sophomore

The most talented player on the roster, Thomas Fidone II, was a top-50 recruit coming out of high school, the highest-rated prospect to go to Lincoln during the Frost era. If we’re to believe the reports coming out of spring and fall camp, the Iowa native is ready to break out in 2023 after his first two seasons on campus were marred by injuries. At 6’6”, he has tremendous length and catch radius with impressive athleticism. Rhule has raved about how Fidone is wired, and OC Marcus Satterfield loves to use his tight ends. With depth at receiver a concern, it opens the door for the highly-touted tight end to emerge as a critical piece in Nebraska’s passing attack.

X-Factor: Quarterback

Speaking of highly-touted recruits, quarterback Jeff Sims was a four-star (top 250) from Jacksonville who committed to Florida State before he flipped to Georgia Tech. A true dual-threat, Sims has the legs to help out his offensive line by getting away from pressure and should also help out his running backs by the attention he draws. Sims brings excellent size and a strong arm, which has many excited. But before we get too excited, let’s understand that Sims wasn’t very productive as a Yellow Jacket. In 25 games (over three seasons), Sims committed 33 turnovers (23 INTs), and his 5.9 YPA last season was a career low. Not just inconsistent, he’s been injury prone and missed ten of 24 games over the past two seasons. Does Sims raise the ceiling in the QB room? Yes, but he’s no sure thing.

Nebraska Schedule Analysis

By Big Ten standards, the schedule is manageable but far from easy. After opening on the road (+7) at Minnesota (challenging Game 1), Nebraska plays a swing game at Colorado (-7.5) before cupcakes Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech come to Memorial Stadium. The B1G East slate is challenging: vs. Michigan, at Michigan State, and vs. Maryland. They can win two or lose all three… indeed more difficult than in 2022 when they picked up two of four wins against Indiana and Rutgers. The six-pack of games against Minnesota, Colorado, Illinois, Purdue, MSU, and Maryland will decide if they hit their OVER and make a bowl.

Nebraska Prediction: OVER/UNDER 6.5 Wins

I won’t say Coach Rhule doesn’t care about winning games in Year 1, but it’s not necessarily his main priority. Part of what made him an excellent hire is that Nebraska is a total rebuild that needed a complete culture overhaul. Building a program is what Rhule does, but it takes time. He was 28-23 with two ten-win seasons at Temple but 2-10 in Year 1. And 19-20 at Baylor with 11 wins by his third season but 1-11 in his first year. He wants to win with toughness and physicality on offense and aggressiveness and speed on defense. I have no doubt he’ll get there, but it won’t happen overnight. The Huskers will win more than one or two games, but six wins and their first bowl since 2016 would be a fantastic Year 1 and still go UNDER the number.

Nebraska Preseason Pick

UNDER 6.5 (-120 @Westgate Superbook Best Price)