NFL Odds: Vikings Likely To Regress Despite Justin Jefferson Ceiling?

Tune in to the “Ultimate Betting Show” on NESN or NESN360 on Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. ET for NFL training camp previews. Next up: the Minnesota Vikings.

The Minnesota Vikings are due for a regression in what figures to be a competitive NFC North.

After all, Minnesota went an outrageous 11-0 in one-possession games during the 2022 regular season. And the Vikings pulled off nine comeback wins in games they trailed during the second half, none more notable than a historic 33-point comeback against the Indianapolis Colts in mid-December.

Those results helped the Vikings claim their first division crown since 2017. But the chances they duplicate that method of success are extremely low.

2022 in review
13-5 overall (lost in NFC divisional round)
7-10-1 against the spread
12-6 over/under

Key offseason additions
DC Brian Flores
WR Jordan Addison (draft)
CB Byron Murphy Jr.
CB Mekhi Blackmon (draft)
DE Marcus Davenport

Key offseason losses
RB Dalvin Cook
WR Adam Thielen
CB Patrick Peterson
LB Eric Kendricks
TE Irv Smith Jr.
LB Za’Darius Smith

Look ahead to 2023 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Super Bowl: +3500
Conference: +1200
Division: +260
Win total: 8.5 (Over -128)
To make playoffs: Yes +100 | No -122

2023 award contenders
MVP: Kirk Cousins +5000, Justin Jefferson +10000
Offensive Player of Year: Jefferson +1400
Offensive Rookie of Year: Jordan Addison +1600
Coach of the Year: Kevin O’Connell +3000

2023 outlook
Justin Jefferson is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, and he’s worthy of both the top pick in fantasy football drafts and an Offensive Player of the Year wager. He won it last year. Additionally, the hiring of defensive coordinator Brian Flores should benefit a defense which ranked 31st in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed last season. But neither are enough to make up for the holes elsewhere on the roster.

The Vikings overachieved relative to their talent in 2022. Since then, Minnesota moved on from a handful of contributing veterans and tried to revamp the roster with younger players while limiting their spending. It seems the organization is content on entering the upcoming season possessing a lower level of talent (and expectations) with eyes on 2024. They’ll have more financial room next offseason with Kirk Cousins-sized question mark. Entering the final year under contract, Cousins will turn 35 before the 2023 regular season.

Those factors, along with the expectation the NFC North will be one of the most competitive divisions in football in the post-Aaron Rodgers era, aids in the uncertainty of the Vikings. The Detroit Lions (+145) currently are favored to win the division with the Vikings, Green Bay Packers (+350) and Chicago Bears (+430) representing the tightest prices of any division.