Every year, the NFL hands out its awards. Players from every ilk are recognized for their contributions. Defensive and Offensive Player of the Year, top rookies from either side of the ball, and Comeback Player of the Year are just a few of the trophies players compete for.
Still, the most prestigious award is typically reserved for quarterbacks. Signal-callers have claimed the MVP award 47 of the 67 times it’s been handed out, including 19 of the past 20. Running backs, a linebacker, a defensive tackle, hell, even a kicker has taken home the hardware. Never a wide receiver, though.
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MVP Futures Market
That’s reflected in the futures market once again this year. The top 25 names on the board are quarterbacks. Virtually every starting quarterback is listed before the top non-quarterback. God Bless Daniel Jones’ heart, but he’s not a legitimate MVP candidate. Neither is Derek Carr, Jordan Love, or Kenny Pickett, but all of them are listed above the most dominant offensive player in the game.
Justin Jefferson
Over the last few seasons, Justin Jefferson has cemented himself as the best wide receiver in the game. Now, the Minnesota Vikings wideout deserves consideration as the NFL’s MVP.
Record Setter
Year after year, Jefferson continues to set records. The LSU product set a new benchmark for rookie receiving yards in his first season. He hauled in 88 catches for 1,400 yards, finishing second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
Jefferson followed that up with two more elite seasons. The former first-round pick has improved his receiving metrics year over year, claiming the Offensive Player of the Year award last year. In 2022, Jefferson led the league in receptions (128), receiving yards (1,809), and yards per game (106.4). It was also the second straight season in which he was the pacesetter in yards per touch.
Considering his situation, a 2,000-receiving-yard season isn’t out of the question in 2023. If he reaches that plateau, voters will have no choice but to include him in the MVP conversation.
Undervalued
Although he enters the season as the top non-quarterback, Jefferson is still undervalued in the futures market. Most sportsbooks are currently hanging Jefferson in the 100-1 range, leaving an edge in backing him to take home the award. The implied probability of the current price suggests a 1% chance Jefferson will take home the trophy. But as we’ve seen early in his career, there’s a better than 1% chance that Jefferson continues his ascent up the NFL ranks.
Jefferson has yet to reach his ceiling, and his trajectory puts him on track to end his career as a generational talent. As evidenced by his ADP, he’s already been accepted as one of the top producers in the game. With another season of development, Jefferson should set the bar even higher in 2023.
If a kicker can take home the MVP award, surely the NFL will recognize Jefferson as the most valuable player in the game.
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