Bill O’Brien’s Offensive Impact Will Make Or Break 2023 Patriots

Is re-minted offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien the most important Patriots employee?

He might be this year.

After New England’s offense dipped precipitously from 26.6 points per game (7th in the NFL) in Mac Jones’ rookie season to 21.4 last season, the schematics clearly needed an overhaul.

No more predictable nonsense. No more putting the young, moldable quarterback in positions to fail. No more defensive coordinator calling plays for the other side of the ball. The offense was a disaster under Matt Patricia, so Bill Belichick called an audible.

Enter O’Brien.

If “Billy O” can recreate some of the magic from his days calling Patriots plays from 2008 to 2011, the team will definitely be more dangerous to beat. Sure, Tom Brady ain’t walking through that door, but Patricia ain’t walking into offensive meetings, either. It’s the little things.

“I think Bill O’Brien is going to be a big help to Jones,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said on this week’s Chicken Dinner podcast. “And this is a make-or-break year for Jones. We’ll find out if he’s any good or not and I think there’s a good chance he is.”

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Odds to win AFC East via FanDuel:
Buffalo Bills +120 ($100 wins $120)
New York Jets +250
Miami Dolphins +290
New England Patriots +800 ($100 wins $800)

Andrews believes the Patriots will be better than last season, but he’s also aware the AFC East is much-improved with the addition of Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Kiss those two free spaces against the New York Jets goodbye until further notice.

“That division is all of a sudden very, very tough,” he said. “If Tua (Tagovailoa) stays healthy, I think Miami is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. If Aaron Rodgers plays as advertised, (the Jets are right there). Some people think the window is closing on Buffalo and I personally don’t.

“That division could be deadly for the Patriots.”

The South Point opened New England’s regular-season win total at 7.5 earlier this summer and the needle hasn’t budged. It’s one of the tightest numbers on the board and respected bettors haven’t made a substantial move either way.

I’ve talked to wise guys on both sides of the aisle. A couple guys don’t think New England has the talent to compete in a loaded AFC while others want absolutely no part of wagering their hard-earned money against Belichick.

And this is the lowest total since Belichick became head coach.

“Right now, 7.5 seems to be a good number,” Andrews said. “I’m getting decent two-way action on that one whether it’s the public perception or reality. This is a big year for everybody involved in New England.”