Jaguars-Saints Picks: New Orleans Gets Right Against Wounded Jags
The line and total have bounced around all week
Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off in New Orleans when the Saints welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to The Big Easy for "Thursday Night Football."
Let's examine three bets to make for the Bayou bash, starting with the moneyline.
(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Saints moneyline (-120)
The spread in this game has been a roller coaster since it opened at Saints -1. There was so much uncertainty centered around Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and his knee injury, that over 60% of the money came pouring in on New Orleans and that moved the line to Saints -3 in just 24 hours. But then just 24 hours later, Lawrence said he was feeling better and expected to play, As a result, the line went back down to Saints -1. The total shared a similar trajectory as well. The total opened at 42.5, but with Lawrence's uncertain status, it dropped down to 38.5. Currently, it?s settled at 39.5. With or without Trevor Lawrence, I like the Saints to win this game because it feels like a must-win spot for them.
The Saints have been inconsistent so far this season. In wins against the Titans, Panthers and Patriots, the defense looked elite and quarterback Derek Carr has looked like the acquisition they were hoping he would be since bringing him in this offseason. But Carr has been dealing with an injured shoulder and hasn?t played well in their losses. The Saints are a sub-.500 team in the winnable NFC South, and while the Jags have won three straight. However, I believe that with the Saints being at home, on the big primetime stage, and in desperate need of a win, they will have the edge needed to win the game outright.
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Over 39.5 (-110)
London treated the Jaguars well. Before heading across the pond, the Jags had lost two in a row. But Jacksonville beat both the Falcons and Bills in London before finally returning home to Duval County last week and beating the Colts. In those wins, the Jags averaged 28 points per game, and since I like the Saints to win this game on Thursday night, they will need to score in that range to pull it off. New Orleans recently put up a season-high 34 points in a blowout win over the Patriots, and although both defenses are formidable, I believe both offenses will manufacture enough points to go over this low number.
Alvin Kamara anytime touchdown (+105)
Alvin Kamara has averaged 17 carries through his first three games this season so far. The Saints have already shown a commitment to him running the football. But Kamara has also been a trusted weapon in the passing game and is already near the team-high in receptions. The touches are plentiful for Kamara, both on the ground and through the air, and that versatility is why I?ll take my chances on Kamara finding paydirt.
