College Football Playoff Landscape Could Reset In Week 11

Welcome to The Slate, your home for college football picks at NESN.com. Here you can find our best bets to follow across (mostly) Saturdays in the fall. Let’s jump into Week 11.

It’s starting to get gross outside in some parts of the country, with temperatures dipping below freezing and the sun setting before we all get out of work as we inch into the middle of November.

It’s not a great time for some, but you can find solace in the fact that the College Football Playoff race is about to heat up.

We’ve got four ranked matchups this weekend, with Pac-12, Big Ten and SEC teams all vying for their spot in conference championship games. It’s that time of year when teams can be eliminated from contention altogether, while some are holding on for dear life. Let’s take a look at all four of those ranked matchups, plus a principle play, with all odds coming from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Michigan (-4.5) at Penn State
(Saturday, 12 p.m. ET on FOX)
We talked about the Michigan scandal last week, taking kind of a flippant tone with the whole thing. It’s hard to do that this week since the entire Big Ten could be thrown out of whack if the Wolverines don’t get it done against the Nittany Lions.

Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State are all vying for a spot in the conference championship game, competing with each other for the Big Ten East title. If Penn State wins Saturday, that would make it 1-1 against the other two teams, with an eventual Michigan win over Ohio State leaving all three teams tied in the conference. That would be a mess, so it’s a good thing we don’t see it happening.

The Wolverines are on a mission, and though playing in Happy Valley might muddy the waters, we think they’ll be able to pull away in this one.

The Pick: Michigan -4.5

Washington (-9.5) vs. Utah
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
It seems like everyone is convinced we’re going to get a rematch of Washington-Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Utah has made a habit of ruining plans in recent seasons, though. The Utes won the conference last season, defeating USC twice along the way. If they want to repeat, they can’t afford a loss to Washington.

We think the Huskies will be just fine here, but the unpredictability has us leaning toward picking the total, especially since it’s sitting at just 50 points. Washington could eclipse that by itself, while Utah has surpassed 30 points on a few occasions. It’ll be close, but we like the Over.

The Pick: Over 50

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Tennessee (-1.5) at Missouri
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
If Georgia wasn’t such a dominant force, we’d be talking about either Tennessee or Missouri as a candidate to make the SEC Championship Game. Instead, the Bulldogs are for second in the SEC East and a possible New Year’s Six game.

These teams both sit at 7-2, with a win putting them in prime position to finish the season strong. The Tigers will get to beat up on Florida and Arkansas in the coming weeks, while the Volunteers have to play Georgia before getting to roll Vanderbilt.

If there was ever a look-ahead spot against a 7-2 team, it’s Tennessee this week. We’ll take Mizzou.

The Pick: Missouri ML

Georgia (-10.5) vs. Ole Miss
(Saturday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Georgia is still awesome. It feels like everyone is forgetting that.

Mizzou pushed the Bulldogs last week, and things aren’t letting up against an 8-1 Ole Miss squad in Week 11. It’s hard seeing the Rebels competing in such a big spot, though, so we’re rolling with the team that hasn’t lost in two years.

The Pick: Georgia -10.5

Oregon (-15) vs. USC
(Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
This is no longer a ranked matchup, because, well, USC has an awful defense.

We wouldn’t forgive ourselves for letting an Oregon-USC game go by without betting the Over.

The Pick: Over 73.5

Season Record: 28-23-0