NFL Week 13 Picks: All Eyes On 49ers-Eagles; Are Broncos Back?

It’s time to make some NFL Week 13 picks, but before getting into the selections, here’s a weird little tidbit about the biggest contest of the weekend.

The Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off their dramatic overtime win against the Buffalo Bills, host the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game. Going solely off the NFC odds for this season, it’s also very possible this is a preview of this season’s title game.

The 49ers’ three-game losing streak is very much behind them. Kyle Shanahan’s team won its last three by a combined score of 92-30, and despite being the road team this weekend, the Niners are currently a consensus 3-point favorite in Philly against the 10-1 Eagles. If that number holds, the Eagles would become just the fourth team in the last 20 years to be a home underdog with a winning percentage of .900 or better in Week 12 or later, according to Action Network. Of those three previous instances, all but one involved backup quarterbacks, with the only exception being Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers in the 2005 AFC Championship Game against the Patriots.

Is that perceived slight enough to motivate the Eagles to victory? NESN.com’s Ricky Doyle isn’t so certain, as he shared this week on “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast. Check out the latest episode below to get the three best bets from both Ricky and NESN.com’s Mike Cole.

Before diving into their full slate of picks, here’s how the guys fared last week.

Here are their NFL Week 13 against-the-spread picks.

THURSDAY, NOV. 30

Seattle Seahawks at (-9) Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Cowboys.
Ricky: Seahawks.

It feels like this season’s Geno Smith far more resembles the version we saw with the Jets. He’s been especially bad under pressure, completing just half of his passes for an average of 5.1 yards per attempt with a passer rating under 70. Could be a very tough scene on the road against a Dallas defense that consistently gets home and can do so without blitzing. –MC

SUNDAY, DEC. 3

(-4) Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Lions.

This is an excellent get-right spot for the Lions. The Saints’ receiver room is decimated, which will only exacerbate their red-zone struggles, and the defense hasn’t quite been the carrying unit some expected this season. New Orleans ranks 25th in pressure rate, and that inability to disrupt the quarterback is felt on the back end, where the Saints’ secondary is without an injured Marshon Lattimore. –RD

(-6) Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.

I haven’t looked it up, but I might be 0-for-the-season on Patriots picks, so take this one with a grain of salt. New England has owned Justin Herbert and the Chargers, winning the last two meetings, with both coming post-Tom Brady. Obviously, this Patriots team is horrendous, and Bailey Zappe is not an NFL quarterback. But for one week, I think there’s something resembling a shot in the arm. Bill Belichick vs. Brandon Staley should (theoretically) still be a major win for New England — at least with a full touchdown on the table — MC

Arizona Cardinals at (-5.5) Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Cardinals.

The Steelers’ offense showed life in their first game after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. And they have a favorable matchup this week. But is that enough to lay nearly a touchdown? Pittsburgh has a minus-23 point differential this season and all seven of its wins were one-score games. Arizona, for all its flaws, is a live ‘dog here with Kyler Murray back. –RD

(-2.5) Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons.
Ricky: Jets.

The Jets’ decision to open Aaron Rodgers’ return window could partially be an attempt to motivate the locker room for one last push. A playoff berth, at this point, would be a miracle, but the slightest bit of optimism could help turn things around, right? Eh. From a purely analytical standpoint, the Falcons are much better. That might not be all that matters, but I do think the Atlanta rushing attack can be effective against a Jets defense allowing 154 yards per game on the ground in five contests since their bye. –MC

Total rushing yards (incl. overtime)

Best Odds Available

Over

Under

ATL at NYJ

Bijan Robinson

ATL – RB

Sunday Dec. 03

o57.5 -115

DraftKings

u59.5 -110

FanDuel

(-1) Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts.
Ricky: Colts.

Don’t let Tennessee’s skid-snapping win over Carolina last week fool you. The Panthers are just that bad. The Colts, meanwhile, continue to prove feisty, thanks in large to their play in the trenches. So long as Gardner Minshew takes care of the football, they should be OK in spots like this. –RD

Denver Broncos at (-3.5) Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Broncos.
Ricky: Texans.

The Denver defense has gotten right in a big way. Through Week 5, it was by far the worst in the league. Since then, it’s been a top-10 defense by EPA. On top of that, Russell Wilson has been one of the highest-rated passers in the same time. Denver hasn’t been as good away from Mile High, and the Texans are pretty good, but I’m a sucker for the hook with the team with a better coach and more proven quarterback. –MC

(-9.5) Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Commanders.

Washington hung around with Dallas for a bit on Thanksgiving — until the Cowboys rattled off 25 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins’ defense, while improved, doesn’t have the same overwhelming ability. That’ll keep the Commanders within striking distance, especially if the game proves sloppy thanks to the rain forecasted in the nation’s capital. –RD

Carolina Panthers at (-5.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Panthers.
Ricky: Panthers.

Honestly, I think I’m still mad at the Bucs for last week’s showing in Indy. As for actual football matters, Carolina shot Frank Reich into the sun and replaced him with special teams coach Chris Tabor. The Panthers’ special teams has actually been quite good, so perhaps this will be an actual improvement. Also, everyone can throw on the Bucs, and this feels like a spot where Carolina finds a way to get Bryce Young going, at least for one week. –MC

(-2.5) San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: 49ers.

The Eagles were outgained in four straight weeks. Since Week 8, their defense ranks 28th in EPA/play. Only the Bengals allowed more yards per drive in that stretch. And only the Cardinals and Commanders have surrendered touchdowns at a higher rate. The 49ers, meanwhile, are healthy, more rested and firing on all cylinders. Lay the points and enjoy. –RD

Cleveland Browns at (-3.5) Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Browns.
Ricky: Rams.

The Rams have five wins this season. Two of those came against Arizona, another two came against Seattle and the fifth was against Indianapolis. Those teams aren’t very good. Granted, Cleveland’s status as “good” is very much up for debate, too. However, assuming Myles Garrett plays, Cleveland’s top-five pass rush (not to mention typically stout run front) should flummox the Rams offense. –MC

(-6) Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Packers.
Ricky: Packers.

We talked at length on “The Spread” this week about whether the Packers are a playoff team. They sure looked the part on Turkey Day. Jordan Love is playing well, the offensive line has improved, and the defense is holding up its end of the bargain, as well. The arrow is pointing up for Green Bay, so much so that you should feel good about grabbing a touchdown here. –RD

MONDAY, DEC. 4

Cincinnati Bengals at (-8.5) Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Bengals.
Ricky: Bengals.

Honestly, there’s not much science behind this one. I think tanking is largely dumb, but it might actually be the play for a team like the Bengals that knows it’s getting its best player back next season. That being said: Cincinnati showed last week it still has fight without Joe Burrow. The Jaguars are also one of those teams I’m just going to accept I’ll be late to the party on acknowledging how good they are, so this many points feels like too many. –MC