Norris Futures Value: 3 Longshots to Catch Hughes and Makar
Usually, the NHL player awards are still wide-open markets at this point of the season. We are just past the quarter-mark of the regular season, with plenty of hockey on the horizon. That affords the top contenders enough runway to make up ground as we race toward the conclusion of the regular season.
But that’s not the case in Norris Trophy betting this year. All 32 teams have at least six defensemen suit up on a nightly basis, but for Norris Trophy purposes, only two rearguards matter.
Like vintage Tiger Woods on a Sunday, Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. Hughes is the odds-on favorite to claim the award, currently priced around the +140 mark, with Makar coming in just off the pace at +160.
With so much left to be decided, which players have the best chance at catching Hughes and Makar before the end of the season?
Evan Bouchard (+1500) – Edmonton Oilers
He may be far off the pace, but Evan Bouchard has the third-best odds to claim this year’s trophy. The Edmonton Oilers took a conservative approach to getting their d-man up to the show, but now they are reaping the benefits. Edmonton has shot up the standings recently, and Bouchard’s appeal only grows the higher they go.
Analytically, Bouchard ranks better than Hughes and Makar. The Oilers’ blueliner has superior Corsi and expected goals-for ratings, with comparable output. Bouchard’s 32 points are five behind Makar and seven below Hughes, putting him third among all NHL D-men.
Like the other frontrunners, Edmonton relies on Bouchard across all strengths, amplifying his Norris Trophy appeal. If his output catches up with production, Bouchard could easily end the campaign with the first personal award of his career.
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Miro Heiskanen (+2500) – Dallas Stars
We say it all the time: players are a function of their system. Thankfully for Miro Heiskanen, he’s thriving under Peter DeBoer’s tutelage with the Dallas Stars. Heiskanen broke out last year, and he’s building a resume as one of the best in the business.
Through the first four seasons of his career, Heiskanen totaled 131 points, failing to surpass 36 in any individual season. In less than a season and a half under DeBoer, the Stars’ blueliner is up to 94 points, averaging nearly a point per game. More importantly, his production comes from a sustainable place, ensuring he continues his upward trajectory over the rest of the campaign.
Heiskanen has a more robust offensive upside than most defenders. He’s accumulated the fifth-most high-danger and eighth-most scoring opportunities at five-on-five. Further, he’s advanced the Stars’ attack without compromising his defensive responsibility, ranking sixth in high-danger and ninth in scoring chance ratings. Altogether, Heiskanen has mastered play at both ends of the ice, and voters are starting to take notice.
Not sure who is in the crease night-to-night? Head to SportsGrid’s Daily Starting Goalies page.
Mattias Ekholm (+10000) – Edmonton Oilers
We’d be remiss if we didn’t spotlight another Oilers defenseman who projects as a true value play in the futures market. Mattias Ekholm has been nothing short of sensational since landing in Edmonton, solidifying the Oilers’ backend and serving as an offensive catalyst. Ekholm is getting no love from bettors and is currently installed as a +10000 longshot. Before you dismiss his chances, let’s take a closer look at his analytics.
Ekholm projects as one of the pre-eminent defenders across the NHL. His 62.2% expected goals-for rating is second to Bouchard’s, and his 62.4% Corsi rating tops all defensemen with at least 250 minutes played. Moreover, Ekholm sits fourth in high-danger chance rating, with the best scoring chance ratio among all defensemen.
There’s no reason why Ekholm should be this far behind the leaders. He was a Norris-caliber player before he started playing with the Oilers, but he has leveled up his metrics since then. There’s enough time left in the season for Ekholm to improve on his ten points, and his metrics support a breakout is coming. Taking a flyer on him at this price could prove to be one of the most profitable endeavors.
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