49ers Ground Game vs. Chiefs Run Defense: Warren Sharp Analyzes
As Super Bowl LVIII approaches, fans and analysts are digging deep into the matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Warren Sharp, a seasoned NFL analyst, provided valuable insights into the game, shedding light on key factors that could ultimately determine the outcome.
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49ers vs. Chiefs Game Odds at FanDuel
- Spread: 49ers -2.5 (-105) | Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: 49ers (-130) | Chiefs (+110)
- Total: OVER 47.5 (-110) | UNDER 47.5 (-110)
“Obviously, turnovers are gonna decide most games,” Sharp pointed out, highlighting the importance of minimizing mistakes. He even revealed a personal betting choice: “Somebody, which I did bet Brock Purdy to throw an interception at even money. That was one of the bets I made.”
One of the critical aspects Sharp focused on was the run game. “For example, pretty much everybody who thinks about the Christian McCaffrey-led San Francisco 49ers is going to assume that they’re going to have success running the ball,” he noted. The Chiefs’ vulnerability in their run defense seemed like an area where the 49ers’ elite run offense could exploit. However, Sharp delved deeper into the stats.
Sharp explained, “The Chiefs’ run defense is very bad against 21 personnel runs and runs with two backs out on the football field.” He emphasized that the Chiefs had faced several teams utilizing such formations during the season. “They played 13 games against the top 13 teams in run rate out of two-back sets,” he added. This experience could work in the Chiefs’ favor.
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Furthermore, Sharp pointed out that the Chiefs had shown strength in defending outside zone runs out of 21 personnel formations. “They actually are above average, 14th in EPA, ninth in success rate against outside zone runs from 21 personnel,” he explained. This was a significant finding since the 49ers are known for their reliance on outside zone runs.
In terms of expectations for Christian McCaffrey, Sharp provided a balanced perspective. “That’s what most people are going to say,” he acknowledged, referring to the assumption that McCaffrey should have a good game. “And I think he may be able to have a decent game still because Kyle’s gonna give him a ton of rushing attempts,” he continued. However, he cast doubt on the notion of McCaffrey having immense success.
Sharp drew a parallel to last year’s Super Bowl, highlighting how the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense, led by Steve Spagnolo, had effectively shut down the run game. “Keep in mind, the Philadelphia Eagles had the number one rushing offense in last year’s Super Bowl,” he pointed out. “Their backs averaged 2.9 yards per carry against this very same Steve Spagnolo-led Kansas City Chiefs defense in the Super Bowl.”
Sharp’s insights provided a fresh perspective on the upcoming Super Bowl clash, emphasizing the importance of turnovers and challenging conventional wisdom regarding the 49ers’ run game. As football enthusiasts gear up for the big game, they will undoubtedly consider these factors while watching the action unfold.
