Imagine this scenario. The Red Sox go all-out in their quest for Bay, spurning Matt Holliday, Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero and whomever else might be within their reach to play left field next season. They invest all their resources into re-signing Bay, and for whatever reason it fails. Either the Red Sox get outbid, or they run into irreconcilable differences with Bay on his next contract. The Sox end up empty-handed, with no Bay and no suitable backup plan.
So instead, they move Jacoby Ellsbury to left field and sign a three-time Gold Glover to play center.
That center fielder is Mike Cameron, a journeyman who filed for free agency last week and whose sixth team, the Milwaukee Brewers, has made it clear that he won't be coming back. Cameron will be looking for a new home, and Boston makes more sense than you might think.
Ellsbury's defense has come into question in the offseason. He's no stranger to the diving catch, though his defensive statistics don't match perception. Additionally, his throwing arm is not a strength in Fenway's expansive center field.
Ellsbury has potential as an outfielder, but he's a bad fit for center field in Fenway Park. Depth is always going to be a problem for anyone in that cavernous Fenway triangle in center field — put him in a modern cookie-cutter park and it's another story.
In center, the Red Sox would be much better off with an experienced, skilled center fielder with a proven track record. Cameron is that player.
Ultimate Zone Rating, the same defensive stat that ranked Ellsbury dead last among the game's regular center fielders defensively, has Cameron third in the major leagues. His range is nothing short of spectacular, and he limits his errors. Cameron has won Gold Gloves in both leagues — in the AL, he won in 2001 and 2003 as a member of the Seattle Mariners, and he won a third plaque in the senior circuit, playing for the San Diego Padres in 2006.
He's that rare player that has shown next to no deterioration with age. Cameron turns 37 in January, and his performance hasn't fallen off one bit. His prowess in center field is still top-notch, and he's still getting it done at the plate, too — his 24 home runs and 32 doubles last season were nothing to sneeze at.
But it's the glove that sets him apart. And it's also the glove that makes him such an undervalued free agent, year in and year out.
Every GM knows to spend like crazy on 40 home runs and 100 RBIs. Gaudy numbers at the plate translate easily into gaudy ones on the contract. Defense is an afterthought when teams throw millions upon millions at Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano or Bobby Abreu, but no one thinks to shell out the big bucks for an elite glove.
Cameron just got out of the most lucrative contract of his career. He made $6.25 million in 2008 and $10 million in '09 with the Brewers. That's chump change for one of the best fielders in the game at a premier defensive position.
Whether Cameron likes it or not, he's probably about to take a pay cut. Everyone does when they reach their late thirties.
For somewhere in the neighborhood of $7 million a year, the Red Sox can snatch up Cameron and transform their outfield into one of baseball's best. But there's an obvious catch — it would require losing out on Bay, dealing a huge blow to the Red Sox offense.
But the Sox would survive. Life could be a lot worse than having Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell filling out the power alley in the heart of your order. The Sox would still score piles of runs next season, and they'd upgrade dramatically in the field.
It would be a calculated risk. And there's no one quite like Theo Epstein at figuring out exactly how to make those calculations.
It's been said that defense wins championships, and this could be a mighty bold way of proving it. On paper, Cameron doesn't look like a perfect fit in Boston, but he's an option the Red Sox could consider. More than that, he'd be a way for the Red Sox to dramatically overhaul the identity of their team.
