Still, though, questions linger about the futures of Mike Lowell — who was one torn thumb ligament away from being traded to Texas — and Jacoby Ellsbury, whose name has popped up plenty of times in trade talks.
NESN play-by-play man Don Orsillo checks in to answer these questions and more in his latest mailbag.
What are your thoughts on defensive statistics like UZR and plus/minus? Are they an accurate indicator of how a good a defensive player is? Jacoby Ellsbury gets criticized for his defense by some people. Others say Derek Jeter is a bad shortstop. These are just two examples of players who make great plays on a regular basis but are cast as poor defenders by stats. Isn’t the eye test as important as numbers?
–Mark, Dedham, Mass.
I am not a fan of this method of evaluating a player. I realize agents and some scouting departments are searching for ways to quantify a player's defense; I just don’t think it tells you enough of the story. I am guessing most baseball people agree, based on how people view your two great examples, Ellsbury and Jeter. I think a scout's eye can more accurately determine whether a player is a good defender and whether or not he can cover ground. Again, this is a way to quantify an area that, with the exception of fielding percentage, has been tough to quantify. Still not a fan, though.
The word “untouchable” has been thrown around a lot regarding the Red Sox’ best prospects — Daniel Bard, Jacoby Ellsbury, Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland. When it comes to a player of Adrian Gonzalez’s caliber, should anyone be truly untouchable? What does the word really mean? Isn’t it possible for Theo Epstein to just get an offer he can’t refuse?
–Maura, Salem, N.H.
Well, the track record suggests a real reluctance to trade away drafted prospects within the organization. That said, I am not sure we have seen the likes of an Adrian Gonzalez available via trade. I do think the disadvantage is that you are now dealing with Jed Hoyer and not Kevin Towers. Jed Hoyer has his own opinions about the Red Sox' prospects, unlike an outside GM who has to rely on his scouting department to evaluate another team’s prospects. That’s why I think that if the Red Sox complete the deal with San Diego, it will take proven players like Ellsbury and Bard rather than prospects.
Where does Mike Lowell go from here? It’s obvious that the Red Sox don’t want him around, but for the moment, he’s stuck here. Will he end up swallowing the personal beef and returning to play third base in Boston, or is he still somehow headed out of town?
–Randall, Tewksbury, Mass.
Well, Mike has been down this road before. Last year, he spent the offseason hearing about how hard the Red Sox pursued Mark Teixiera. He was as good as gone then, as well. He came back and was a class act, as usual, working hard to contribute. He was not pleased with his lack of playing time at the end of the year but was in no way a cancer or a problem. I think if this happens again (which I think it will, during the spring), then Mike will do what he always does and rise above the situation. I happen to think he will be better range-wise this season than last season as he continues to build strength in his hip.
Rafael Soriano has gone to the Rays. Mike Gonzalez is headed to Baltimore. How are the Red Sox going to keep up with the AL East in bullpen depth? Are there more options out there to replace Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito?
–Tommy, Natick, Mass.
The bullpen is a big issue. To me, it was the single most important turnaround in the Tampa Bay Rays' amazing season in 2008. I think that as it stands, things with the Red Sox are OK but could be better. I am not concerned about the Rays or the Orioles overall. After losing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, things are not as solid at the back end, leading to Jonathan Papelbon. Also, the latter part of Manny Delcarmen’s season — whether he was injured or not — was and is a concern. I think there will be more to follow in that department as the offseason progresses. It always seems that the 'pen, while important, is the last to be assembled.
How do you think Jason Varitek will fare in a backup role with the Red Sox?
–Vanessa, Cambridge, Mass.
I think well. I really do. I think he over-extended himself the past few years and was both tired and injured in the second half. I think that in 2009, the first half was a nice bounce back for Varitek in terms of power. The second half was not good and things started to snowball again at the plate. I think he will be very valuable to the pitching staff and to Victor Martinez in 2010. The time off will only help his production, in my estimation. No question, though, it will be quite the adjustment for him individually after all these years.
