"We have to have them playing at their peak [when the playoffs start]," the coach said Friday. "If that means working them more in practices and maybe them missing games — whatever it takes, that’s what we have to do, and that’s what we’re going to do."
Bad decision.
Look, I’m all for getting the Big Three rest when it’s warranted. Kevin Garnett’s knee seems to be hanging by a thread. Paul Pierce has carried Boston’s weight on his shoulders for 11 years, and it’s starting to show. And Ray Allen, the eldest of the three, has played the second-most minutes of anybody on the roster.
But here’s the problem: If the Celtics can’t lock up the No. 3 seed in the East, they’re not getting past the second round of the playoffs – regardless of how healthy they are.
Take a look at the current standings in the Eastern Conference:
1. Cleveland
2. Orlando (5 1/2 games back)
3. Atlanta (9)
4. Boston (10)
5. Milwaukee (15)
6. Charlotte (17)
7. Miami (17)
8. Toronto (19)
In the first round of the postseason, the matchups are 1-8, 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5. The Celts should be able to handle either Milwaukee or Charlotte (or Miami, if it bumps up) in that opening series. No worries there.
It’s in the second round where the chips begin to fall. The winner of 1-8 (Cleveland, in other words) will take on the winner of 4-5; and the winner of 2-7 (Orlando, in other words) will see the winner of 3-6.
Now think that through: If the Celtics finish the regular season in the No. 4 spot, they will play Cleveland in Round 2. The Cavaliers hold the best record in the NBA, are virtually unstoppable at home and just upended Boston by 11 Sunday afternoon in a fourth-quarter beat-down.
The Celts’ kryptonite (Atlanta), meanwhile, would still be left on the map at the No. 3 seed.
“You know, two years ago we swept Atlanta in the regular season,” Rivers said Sunday after the loss at Cleveland. “Then we went seven games [in the first round of the playoffs]. When the playoffs start, it’s a new thing.”
True. And imagine, under that logic, how the Celts will fare after the Hawks turned the tables and swept them this time around. They beat Boston by an average of almost nine points a tilt — taking four of seven from them (especially on their home court) is unlikely, at best.
If, instead, Boston were able to secure the No. 3 seed, it’d see Orlando in Round 2.
Yes, I’m aware the Green are 1-3 against the Magic this season, but consider this: Those losses showed an average differential of just 4.7 points, and the one win came on Orlando’s home court, where the C’s won by nine.
The Hawks, meanwhile, would take the No. 4 post and be handled in Round 2 by the Cavs; and they would then come into the Conference Finals (potentially against Boston) wearied by an Atlanta team that pushes the ball just about every time up the floor.
A wearied Cavs squad is the only one Boston has a chance of upsetting.
What this all means, in short, is the Celtics still have a regular-season goal in mind: Bypass the Hawks for that No. 3 seed.
It won’t be easy. Of the 17 games left on Boston’s schedule, 10 are against teams with records better than .500, including another matchup against Cleveland.
If Doc wants to rest his players, the C’s will have to build early leads against clubs like Detroit and New York, then let the gang ride the bench in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, there’s no room for R&R; it’s already crunch time.
Consider this the playoffs — where the difference between No. 3 and No. 4 could be the difference between an early exit and a shot at Cleveland in the Eastern Conference finals.
