Good, star-studded matchups. Both teams are packing starting rotations that boast talent and competitive fire, from top to bottom; you can guarantee that every game will be a good one.
For the Red Sox, there are many question marks but a lot of promise: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka are sure to be ready for the Angels this week.
For the Angels, the rotation is similarly stacked: John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, and Joe Saunders will give the Red Sox all they can handle. From innings one through six, these playoff games are going to be competitive.
Luckily for the Red Sox, they will have an edge after that.
If the Red Sox are to win this series and advance to their third consecutive ALCS, they're to do it by exploiting the clearest advantage they have over the AL West champions: their superior bullpen. From the top of the seventh to the final out, the Red Sox have what it takes to prevail as the better team.
Over the 162-game long haul, the difference became clear — the Red Sox, with a loaded bullpen that includes four All-Stars, were second in the American League in bullpen ERA at 3.80. The Angels were nearly a run worse — at 4.49, they finished 11th in the AL. Of baseball's eight playoff teams, only the Rockies (4.53) were worse.
Ironically, it's a cast-off from those Rockies leading the way in Mike Scioscia's bullpen this season. One year after watching Francisco Rodriguez break baseball's single-season save record, the Angels watched him sign with the Mets before turning to Brian Fuentes, a longtime closer in the NL, to take over the reins. They gave him two years, $17.5 million, and a $9 million vesting option for 2011 — and what did they get for it?
They got saves. A lot of them — 48 to be exact, the most in the majors this season. But when you play for Scioscia, you're guaranteed saves. The Angels throw closers out there in the ninth inning, telling them to face two batters and put another notch in the save column — it's their M.O. But what does it mean?
Fuentes is 34 and finishing up one of the worst seasons of his career. His ERA was 3.93, a hideous number for the closer of a playoff-bound team. Hitters, despite being tired from a long day's work and facing him in the ninth inning, have a .342 OBP against him. That's better than league average.
Fuentes had 48 saves despite only pitching 55 innings all season. He was able to get two outs and finish off a 5-2 win — sure, no problem. But what if it's 1-0 and he's facing the Red Sox in the bottom of the ninth at Fenway? Can he handle that pressure?
The Angels have no idea.
The Angels don't really know if they can trust Fuentes, and they probably don't know much about Darren Oliver, Jason Bulger, Kevin Jepsen or Jose Arredondo, either. Their bullpen is a patchwork quilt sewn together with the aging, unreliable and inconsistent. You think David Ortiz is afraid to face Darren Oliver in the eighth inning of a big game? He's more likely drooling at the chance.
As for the Sox, they're prepared. They have a plan. With Billy Wagner, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon, they have the best bridge in baseball from innings seven through nine.
Wagner has appeared in 15 games since his arrival in late August. His ERA is 1.98. He still has the same heat and the same determination he always did — and he's dying to win a ring.
Okajima is the best eighth-inning guy money can buy. He's been setting up Papelbon for three years now, and he's still going strong at 33. He's been to the postseason every year with the Red Sox (career playoff ERA: 2.14), and he's ready to make another run.
And then there's Papelbon.
Someday, we may look back on Jonathan Papelbon as the single greatest postseason reliever of all time. At age 28, what does the Red Sox' closer have on his resume? Three ALDS appearances, two in the ALCS and one World Series. He's pitched in 16 games, worked a total of 25 innings — and he's never allowed a run. In fact, he's allowed just 10 hits — and this is in October, against the best teams in baseball.
So who would you rather face? Ninth inning, game on the line, season hanging on the balance — Papelbon or Fuentes?
Exactly.
And with the Red Sox, it isn't even just about the front-line guys. From front to back, the Sox' pen is just downright scary. No one wants to face Papelbon in a tough spot — but the fact is, they're not exactly jumping at the chance to stare down Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito or Daniel Bard either. For the Red Sox, every single pitch this October will be thrown by a proven star pitcher. There are no pretenders.
Nor should there be — this is the postseason, where every pitch counts.
