What if Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Mike Cameron, Jason Varitek, Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell didn't spend part or most of the year on the disabled list? That's a question that can't be answered definitively, and it's one that's only likely to leave Red Sox fans feeling pain.
The case of Beckett, more so than the others, has been more a source of frustration than pain. Part of the reason can be found in his start on Thursday night. When Beckett struggled in 2009, it seemed to be a direct result of an inability to locate his curveball. The result was a mediocre but still productive season, ending with a 12-10 record and 4.03 ERA.
On Thursday, however, just like in many of his starts this year, Beckett was locating his fastball, his curveball and even his cutter. And he was getting results. No Angel reached second base in the first 5 1/3 innings, and the Red Sox seemed on their way to a sweep behind an impressive effort from their Opening Day starter. Then, back-to-back doubles, an infield single and a missed location later, the Red Sox trailed 4-1. Beckett couldn't get out of the seventh, and his night was done. So were the Red Sox.
The latest loss brought Beckett's record to 3-3 and his ERA to 6.67. That's quite obviously not the stuff of an ace.
It's fair to wonder, then, where exactly the Red Sox would have been had they gotten an average contribution from Beckett. Asking him to repeat his brilliant 2007 season (20-7, 3.27 ERA) would be unrealistic, so instead, let's average his numbers from his first four seasons in Boston. At 69-53 this year, the Red Sox are 75 percent finished with their season, so we'll take his averages and apply them to three-quarters of a season.
By that measure, Beckett would be 12-7 in 23 starts with a 4.05 ERA.
What does that mean exactly? Well, that's hard to tell.
Obviously, the Sox could use those nine wins, especially considering the trio of Tim Wakefield, Scott Atchison and Felix Doubront are just 6-11 combined as starters. They would also benefit from the fact that the team won 61 percent of Beckett's starts over his first four years. Though that stat involves too many variables to treat it as gospel, that would have the Red Sox 14-9 in Beckett's starts this year.
Yet, as was on display Thursday night, Beckett is not the same this year. He's 3-3, and the team is 8-6 in his 14 starts. A 14-9 team record would be better — and if Beckett's planning on living up to that contract extension, he's going to have to be much, much better — but with the Red Sox five-and-a-half games out of the wild card, it still might not have made the difference in a season defined by injuries.
