They have 44 games to go, and will have 43 left as of Dustin Pedroia's Tuesday return. As desperate as things may be, the Sox do have time to catch fire.
Catch fire, though, may be more than necessary. Boston just has to be four games better than Tampa the rest of the way. With Pedroia back, that seems entirely possible.
Prior to Pedroia's freak foul ball off his foot, the Sox were 45-31, a .592 winning percentage. Since, they are 22-20, a .524 pace. If the Sox can return to their "with Pedroia" pace, they will go approximately 26-18 down the stretch, meaning they will end the season with 93 wins.
93 wins gets you into the playoffs in most divisions and in most years, but they'd need Tampa Bay to go 23-23 the rest of the way to tie them. That's possible, but Tampa's schedule is pretty easy from here on out.
Pedroia's June pace, though, was a true "laser show" — a .374 average and 1.075 OPS. His WAR, wins above replacement, for the season has been 3.4 (equal to about 33 runs), but his poor May actually subtracted from that number, and his June accounted for approximately 2.5 of those win-shares. If he can keep up that June pace, he'd end up at approximately 6.4 wins, nearly at his 2008 MVP mark.
Right now, you'd expect him to pace out to about 4.6, so he'd be adding two wins over the expected value. If the math holds, the Sox would win 95 games instead of 93.
Then, there are the intangibles. Having one of the team's leaders back — particularly a guy with so much swagger — really could help this team catch fire. If he can inspire the team, they could do even better than 95 wins, and if they are in the high 90s, their chances have to be considerable.
Currently, Baseball Prospectus gives Boston a 30 percent chance at a playoff spot. They were in single digits not so long ago, so that's pretty good.
With Pedroia, the odds may be even better.
Can Dustin Pedroia's return help the Red Sox get to the playoffs?survey software
