For as lackluster as the 2017 Major League Baseball regular season was at times, thanks in large to the lack of drama surrounding most of the playoff races, this postseason has a chance to be special.
Three teams — the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros — won more than 100 games, with the Tribe even rattling off an American League record 22 consecutive victories at one point. None of those clubs have an easy path to the Fall Classic, though, as one could make a case for almost any team getting hot and winning this year’s World Series.
We’re big on predictions here at NESN.com, and the tandem of Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle decided to take a whack at figuring out exactly how this year’s playoffs are going to shake out.
AL Wild Card Game
Mike: Yankees over Twins. The Yankees certainly seem built for a one-game playoff. The bullpen is a strength, and if they really wanted to get frisky, they could make this a bullpen game and save Luis Severino. But he’ll pitch, and he’ll likely dominate as he has for much of the season. That clear-cut advantage is far too much to ignore.
Ricky: Twins over Yankees. I know, it makes no sense. The Yankees look poised for playoff success, especially after closing the season on a 20-9 run that included a three-game sweep of the Twins just a couple of weeks ago. But some fluky things can happen in a one-game playoff, and is it really that crazy to think Ervin Santana will pitch well enough for Minnesota to pull off an upset when all of the pressure seems to be on New York?
NL Wild Card Game
Mike: Diamondbacks over Rockies. The D-Backs are a team that probably no one in the NL wants to see. That this game is in the desert, though, is the big reason I’ll take Arizona. The Diamondbacks went 52-29 at home this season — only the Dodgers had a better home record.
Ricky: Diamondbacks over Rockies. Unlike Jon Gray, who’s set to make his postseason debut Wednesday, Zack Greinke has some playoff success on his résumé. Greinke also is 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA at home this season and arguably has been the NL’s third-best pitcher overall (behind Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw).
ALDS
Mike: Astros over Red Sox. There are just too many question marks with the Red Sox, and last year’s ALDS wipeout against Cleveland still is fresh in my mind. Sure, Boston has Chris Sale now and Drew Pomeranz had a breakout season … but what about that offense? The Red Sox’s offense finished 11th in OPS this season, and if Boston’s bats go cold even for a game or two (especially in a short series), it puts even more pressure on a pitching staff that’s going up against the team that led MLB in runs.
Ricky: Astros over Red Sox. Houston’s lineup is stacked, and the Astros can beat you with power, speed and everything in between. Perhaps most importantly, the ‘Stros don’t strike out — MLB-best 17.3 percent strikeout rate — which should bode well facing a rotation anchored by whiff king Sale.
Mike: Indians over Yankees. This could be an all-time classic series. The Indians’ pitching staff going up against some of those young Yankees sluggers will be fascinating to watch. In the end, though, I’ll side with the Tribe, who have a sizable advantage in postseason experience. And really, how can you pick against the team that gets to send Corey Kluber to the mound at least twice in a seven-game series?
Ricky: Indians over Twins. The sad reality about the Twins-Yankees wild card game is that it’s basically to see who gets kicked around by the Indians. Cleveland’s just too deep to fall flat here.
NLDS
Mike: Cubs over Nationals. No team was better in the second half than the Cubs, who won 49 of 74 games after the All-Star break, including a 19-9 mark in September. They’re still loaded with talent and obviously are no strangers to October baseball. And for all that’s been made about the struggles of Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester this season, both have come around: Arrieta posted a 2.26 ERA after July 1, and Lester allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his final five starts. The Nats have their own potent 1-2 punch in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, but injury concerns force me to side with Chicago.
Ricky: Cubs over Nationals. When was the last time the Nationals played a meaningful game? They played in a crap division that they won by 20 games. Also, haven’t we seen this before? The Nats made the playoffs in three of the last five seasons before this year and each time they lost in the NLDS. The uncertainty surrounding Bryce Harper, who missed significant time with a knee injury, also scares me away.
Mike: Diamondbacks over Dodgers. There’s not a team in baseball who should be more confident going up against the Dodgers than the D-Backs, who won 11 of 19 games vs. L.A. There are no secrets between these two clubs, and the reeling Dodgers have their work cut out for them going up against a lineup that features one of the best players in the world, Paul Goldschmidt, and the hottest hitter in the world, J.D. Martinez, who has 24 home runs since Aug. 1.
Ricky: Diamondbacks over Dodgers. The Dodgers’ late-season slump, which followed a stretch of dominance, has them looking vulnerable. And the Diamondbacks boast a very potent offense to go along with a steady rotation (anchored by Greinke, Robbie Ray and Zack Godley) that’s capable of going toe to toe with the Dodgers’ collection of arms.
ALCS
Mike: Indians over Astros. If you thought the Indians-Yankees matchup was great, this could be even better, with the best remaining offense (Houston) locking horns with the best remaining pitching staff (Cleveland). And while I obviously love the Indians’ rotation, it’s Cleveland’s bullpen — and Terry Francona’s brilliance — that gives the Tribe the edge here. Francona handled the ‘pen as well as you could want last season, and he’ll similarly be tested in this series. He’ll find the right matchups to put Cleveland’s relievers in position to get big outs, and that will be the difference in slowing down Houston’s offense.
Ricky: Astros over Indians. Houston gambled a bit by acquiring Justin Verlander just before the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline, and it’ll end up being an incredible roll of the dice if he continues to pitch in the postseason like he did in his final five starts of the regular season (5-0, 1.06 ERA). The arrival of a vintage Verlander (combined with the return of a healthy Dallas Keuchel) completely has changed the look and feel of the Astros’ rotation. That’ll be a difference-maker in the ALCS when Houston might not score quite as easily against Cleveland’s shut-down pitching staff. This series could go the distance.
NLCS
Mike: Cubs over Diamondbacks. I already talked about Chicago’s pitching, but don’t sleep on the Cubbies’ ability to score runs — and prevent them on defense. Chicago didn’t play the same level of historic defense it did in 2016, which caused some regression. But the Cubs still finished fifth and fourth in defensive runs saved and UZR, respectively. The offense still was very good, finishing in the top 10 in runs, home runs, walk rate, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. And again in regards to the pitching, even if Lester, Arrieta or Kyle Hendricks falters, the Cubs’ midseason pickup of Jose Quintana still looms large.
Ricky: Cubs over Diamondbacks. I love the D-Backs. And admittedly, part of picking the Cubs here is because I predicted an Astros-Cubs World Series matchup before the season started. That said, Chicago has experience on its side. Joe Maddon should be able to mix and match with his enviable depth, and a hardened rotation featuring championship holdovers Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks and midseason pickup Quintana is tough to bet against.
World Series
Mike: Indians over Cubs. For the first time since 1977 and ’78, we get a World Series rematch. This time, however, it’s the Indians who finally are able to break through and erase a decades-long title drought. I still believe pitching is the key to winning in October, and some even have wondered if the Indians have the best starting rotation of all time. The Indians came as close as possible to winning a title last year, and they’re even better in 2017. Francisco Lindor took the next step and arguably is the best overall player in the postseason, Edwin Encarnacion (and his .852 career postseason OPS) is a great addition in the middle of the order and Carlos Carrasco (18-6, 3.29 ERA) is back after missing the playoffs last season. It’s a fairly safe and popular pick, but Cleveland just looks too talented and too deep.
Ricky: Astros over Cubs. Picking a team based on its offense seems ill-fated. But when that offense — which features a three-time batting champion (Jose Altuve), one of the most dynamic hitters in baseball (Carlos Correa) and a breakout star (George Springer), among others — coincides with a pitching staff that found its stride late in the season, I’m OK with banking on continued success come playoff time. Sorry, Chicago. No championship parade this year.
Thumbnail photo via Jennifer Buchanan/USA TODAY Sports Images
