Advanced statistics and data are widely considered beneficial for NBA teams looking to get an edge. But what if the edge they’re seeking is to lose more games?
That’s what ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon suggested Monday in a report on what they call one of “the most widespread tanking efforts the league has ever seen.”
The motivations are in plain sight: The NBA’s eight worst teams enter Tuesday separated by just three games in the standings, while the league’s bottom five clubs all are sitting on 18 wins. The worse your record, the better your odds in the NBA Draft Lottery and the likelier your chances of landing a top-five pick in the draft.
So, teams like the Dallas Mavericks and Chicago Bulls have engaged in “passive tanking,” which, according to ESPN.com, takes the form of “player development,” giving inexperienced young players minutes in crunch time over seasoned veterans under the guise of “getting them reps,” or being extra cautious with key players coming back from injury.
Some clubs might be going one step further, though, by using stats to actually determine the worst lineups to put on the floor.
From ESPN.com:
“One executive told ESPN that he suspects the use of ‘reverse analytics.’ Instead of using data to determine which lineups may be most effective in a certain matchup, coaches may be provided with data that could yield the opposite.”
Windhorst reiterated that report Monday during an appearance on ESPN’s “Outside the Lines,” suggesting analytics departments could be giving their coaches data on “what lineups to play that may not be successful.”
That’s next-level tanking, and part of the reason why the NBA is tweaking its lottery rules: After this offseason, the teams with the three worst records all will have a 14 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the current format, which gives the worst team a 25 percent shot at the top pick.
