Bill Belichick, Patriots Were Among NFL’s Best Drafters A Short Time Ago

It’s undeniable that Bill Belichick and the Patriots have recently had some lean years extracting value out of the draft, but not too long ago New England’s head coach was one of the best in the business at identifying young talent.

Over the last five years, the Patriots rank 26th in the NFL in value rate, a metric that represents team AV (approximate value, a Pro Football Reference metric) over total draft AV. The Patriots also rank 24th in value vs. expected rate.

The last 10 years paints a much more positive picture, however.

The Patriots rank 12th in value rate and 11th in value vs. expected rate when you add in 2011-2016.

Here’s a glossary of stats devised to determine how much value teams are extracting specifically from the draft using Pro Football Focus’ Approximate Value, or AV, metric:

Value Rate: Team or player AV divided by total draft class AV

This is percent of value teams are drawing out of the draft.

Value Rate+: Value Rate where average=100

This is a simpler way of looking at Value Rate. Think of it like ERA+ or OPS+ if you’re a baseball fan.

Value Vs. Expected rate: How a player’s Value Rate compares to the expected Value Rate from his draft slot

This is a gauge of how efficiently teams are using their draft picks.

AV is not a perfect stat. But it is the best, easiest and most uniform metric to use for a broad exercise like this one.

The Jets have been almost impossibly bad at drafting over the last 10 years, especially when you consider the fact that they’ve used five Top 10 picks in that timespan.

The Ravens and Seahawks, meanwhile, have soared over their competition, and it definitely helps that they hit on quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson.

2016-2020

We took an in depth look at the 2020 NFL Draft:

Patriots 2020 Draft Grade: How Class Ranks Compared To All 32 NFL Teams

And the last five years:

Can Bill Belichick Still Draft? How Patriots Have Fared Last Five Years

Earlier this week, so check out Parts 1 and 2 above.

2015

The Patriots really didn’t move around the draft board much in 2015. They did trade guard Logan Mankins to the Buccaneers for tight end Tim Wright and a fourth-round pick before the 2014 season in what was a shocking move at the time.

That fifth-round pick turned into defensive end Trey Flowers, who helped New England win two Super Bowls.

Mason has been one of the Patriots’ best draft values over the last 21 years, ranking 10th in that category.

Brown isn’t regarded as a major hit in the first round, since he wasn’t brought back on a fifth-year option. He’s probably one of the Patriots’ most underrated players and started on three straight Super Bowl teams.

Here’s a spreadsheet with metrics on every player drafted in 2015.

Minnesota hit on wide receiver Stefon Diggs, linebacker Eric Kendricks and defensive end Danielle Hunter. The Jets’ best player in this draft was defensive end Leonard Williams. Their second-best was quarterback Bryce Petty. Woof.

Bringing in Brown, Flowers and Mason, it’s not surprising to see the Patriots ranked fifth in extracting value out of this class despite some misses like Richards and Grissom. The Patriots get an A-. Throw in undrafted find David Andrews, and this bumps up to an A.

2014

The Patriots also didn’t make any notable trades during the 2014 NFL Draft. Dominique Easley was a major risk at 29th overall with known knee issues coming out of Florida. He was cut after just two seasons in New England and is the Patriots’ worst value of the last 10 years when draft slot is taken into account.

It always helps value to hit on a quarterback like Garoppolo, even if most of his value has come with the San Francisco 49ers. White was one of the Patriots’ most important players of the second Super Bowl era.

This was actually the Patriots’ weakest draft of this five-year span despite bringing in Garoppolo and White. Easley is the Patriots’ second-worst pick of this time period.

Here’s a spreadsheet with metrics on every player drafted in 2014.

The Raiders and Rams find themselves at the top of this list because they drafted Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald.

The Patriots get a B- since, ultimately, it was below average in value rate and above average in value vs. expected rate. The Patriots also signed an undrafted free agent by the name of Malcolm Butler; you might have heard of him. That was actually a really solid undrafted class of rookies with Alejandro Villanueva, Andrew Norwell, Todd Davis, Shaquil Barrett, Adrian Phillips and Cameron Brate, among others, all getting signed as free agents.

2013

Belichick swung one of the best trades of his career during this draft, when he traded down from 29th overall, where the Minnesota Vikings took future Patriot Cordarrelle Patterson, to pick up the 52nd, 83rd, 102nd and 229th overall picks. The Patriots selected Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, Josh Boyce and traded the seventh-rounder for running back LeGarrette Blount.

That’s a good way to win a couple of Super Bowls. Collins is the Patriots’ best value of this 10-year period based on value vs. expected rate. This is the goal of trading down: Finding a player or players who are better than the one you could have selected in your original draft slot.

The Patriots also previously used 2013 draft picks to trade for Aqib Talib, Albert Haynesworth and Chad Johnson. There were some hits. There were some regrets.

Harmon, who was widely graded as a UDFA, was a completely shocking third-round pick out of Rutgers. The selection worked wonderfully for the Patriots, who found a three-time Super Bowl champion and captain. Collins and Ryan also were great values.

Here’s a spreadsheet with metrics on every player drafted in 2013.

The Patriots put together another above-average draft class on the back of that trade out of the first round. Imagine, instead, if they came away with Patterson, Dobson, Harmon, Buchanan and Beauharnais. The Patriots get a B.

The Patriots also signed guard Josh Kline, wide receiver Kenbrell Thompkins and punter Ryan Allen as undrafted free agents.

2012

The Patriots traded up twice in the first round to take Chandler Jones, one of the best pass rushers of his generation, and Dont’a Hightower, perhaps New England’s most important defensive player of the second Super Bowl run.

We’ll get into how they acquired the additional first-round pick next.

It’s impressive to hit on two first-round picks so soundly based on value over expected rate.

Wilson was definitely a reach in the second round but still actually rates with positive overall value compared to the rest of the class.

Here’s a spreadsheet with metrics on every player drafted in 2012.

The Giants, 49ers and Falcons all whiffed extremely hard in this year’s draft. New York’s best pick was Rueben Randle. Joe Looney was San Francisco’s top player, and Atlanta really didn’t end up with anyone of note.

The Patriots get another B. Their top undrafted free agent was Brandon Bolden.

2011

The Patriots headed into the 2011 NFL Draft with two first-round picks after trading defensive end Richard Seymour to the Raiders. Belichick took Nate Solder then traded New England’s first-round pick for a 2011 second-round pick and a future first. The Patriots took Shane Vereen in the second round and used their future first to trade up for Jones.

The Patriots made another savvy trade when they moved down from the second round to take Stevan Ridley in the third round and offensive tackle Marcus Cannon in the fifth.

Ras-I Dowling was a major miss in the beginning of the second round. He’s Belichick’s worst pick based on value vs. expected rate.

The Patriots extracted value out of the draft by taking Solder, Vereen, Ridley and Cannon but also rated only average in value vs. expected rate.

Here’s a spreadsheet with metrics on every player drafted in 2011.

The Patriots get another B. Solder and Cannon were great picks and values. Vereen was a solid bridge between Kevin Faulk and James White in the third-down back role.

GENERAL MANAGERS

Belichick doesn’t quite rank in the upper echelon of general managers over the last 10 drafts, but he’s certainly above average in both value rate and value vs. expected rate.

It’s no major surprise to see GMs like DeCosta, Ballard, Newsome, Dorsey, Beane, Grier, Schneider and Thompson high on this list. Caldwell is higher than expected, but he also did draft Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson and Yannick Ngakoue.

It’s interesting to see Gutekunst and Veach so low on this list, but the Chiefs and Packers have not hit on high impact players over the last three years. Arizona’s Steve Keim is the next worst current GM.