Bobby Dalbec-Aaron Judge Stat Comparisons Bode Well For Red Sox Prospect

Here’s some fodder for the Bobby Dalbec hype machine.

MLB.com’s David Adler on Tuesday compared the Boston Red Sox first baseman’s 2020 batting statistics to those New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge posted in 2016 and concluded Dalbec “could blossom into the next great power hitter … if he can make the same strides Judge did as he enters his sophomore season.”

Here’s a look a the comparison Adler makes between Judge, Hitter 1, and Dalbec, Hitter 2.

“Here are three sets of stats for two rookie right-handed power hitters, who both flashed elite home run potential — counterbalanced by sky-high strikeout and swing-and-miss totals.

Baseline stats
Hitter 1: Age 24, 27 G, 95 PA, 4 HR, 44.2% K rate, 9.5% BB rate
Hitter 2: Age 25, 23 G, 92 PA, 8 HR, 42.4% K rate, 10.9% BB rate

Plate discipline
Hitter 1: 45.6% swing rate, 63% in-zone swing rate, 30.6% chase rate, 42.5% whiff rate
Hitter 2: 48.8% swing rate, 67.4% in-zone swing rate, 33.5% chase rate, 46.2% whiff rate

Contact quality
Hitter 1: 58.1% hard-hit rate, 32.6% sweet-spot contact, 11.6% barrel rate, 55.8% line drives/fly balls
Hitter 2: 43.9% hard-hit rate, 36.6% sweet-spot contact, 22% barrel rate, 51.2% line drives/fly balls

After joining the chorus of MLB observers who highlight Dalbec’s massive potential, Adler issued the Red Sox prospect a challenge for Year 2 of his MLB career.

“He might hit 30-40 homers if everything goes right,” Adler wrote. “Or he might never connect enough and just strike out 200 times.

“Dalbec will have to make some big strides. Judge cut his strikeout rate by nearly 15 percentage points from 2016-17, he cut his chases and swings-and-misses by close to 10 percentage points, he attacked more pitches in the heart of the zone, and he took advantage of his supreme strength by driving more balls to the opposite field … the list goes on.”

Adler goes on to point out aspects of Dalbec’s offseason development which have contributed to his strong start to spring training and bode well for 2021 and beyond.

“And we already know the power to all fields he’s showcasing in Spring Training right now is real — he flashed it last season, too,” Adler wrote. “Half of Dalbec’s 2020 home runs were pulled; the other half were to the opposite field. And his other base hits were sprayed across the field, too.

“Dalbec might have one of the biggest ranges in potential season outcomes of any hitter. But the Judge-ian raw power is there. So are signs of a Judge-ian breakout. That makes Dalbec a pivotal hitter for the Red Sox if they’re going to exceed expectations this season.”

Judge hit 52 home runs en route to winning the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2017. If Dalbec advances toward that level, the Red Sox truly will have unearthed a gem in their 2016 fourth-round draft pick and polished him into a valuable piece of their team.