NCAA Tournament Upset Picks: Teams Who Could Make (Or Break) Brackets

March Madness is here, and we’re all in search of the one thing that makes us feel smarter than our peers: NCAA Tournament upset picks.

The Big Dance makes its triumphant return Friday afternoon in Indianapolis. That means we still have some time to fill out our brackets, as we crunch the numbers, run the models and play out every scenario. By tipoff for Round 1, some of us will look like Charlie Day.

Of course, you want to win your bracket pool. But isn’t it just as satisfying to nail a first-round upset? It makes no sense. We all know you didn’t watch any college basketball this year, and that one point isn’t going to win you your pool, but be honest: You’re still patting yourself on the back about Stephen F. Austin seven years later.

So, yes, while we have plenty of resources for you when it comes to filling out your brackets, here are some first-round upset picks you might consider. Just don’t blame us when the 4-seed you were so eager to knock off makes the Final Four.

WEST REGION
No. 12 UC-Santa Barbara over (-7) Creighton

The Gauchos! UCSB is dancing thanks to a win in the Big West title game, and it comes into the tournament red-hot, having won 18 of its last 19 games. It’s possible UCSB can take away one of Creighton’s strengths, too. The Blue Jays ranked 15th nationally, making nearly 10 3-pointers per game. The Gauchos, meanwhile, allowed just 5.6 3-pointers per game (14th nationally).

No. 14 Ohio over (-7.5) Virginia
One thing is for sure: UVA is no stranger to first-round upsets. The (technical) defending champions had a fine season, going 18-6, but they come in having hit a speed bump. COVID-19 knocked the Cavaliers out of the ACC tournament. We don’t know whether it will be a factor again in Indy, but don’t sleep on an Ohio team that nearly beat Illinois — in Champaign — in November. Ohio has a great offense, ranking 13th in effective field goal percentage, and it just takes one hot night to advance.

SOUTH REGION
No. 11 Utah State over (-4) No. 6 Texas Tech

Utah State is going to make you work for your buckets. The Aggies have the No. 7 defense in the entire tournament (by KenPom efficiency), and they’re No. 6 in the field in offensive rebound percentage, a key stat this time of the year. Is that enough to knock off the reigning national runners-up? Maybe, maybe not. But the 4-point spread should tell you all you need to know about how sharp people feel about Utah State’s chances of pulling the upset.

No. 14 Colgate over (-8.5) No. 3 Arkansas
Points, points, points. The total for this game currently sits around 161.5, which is the highest of any game on the board in the first round. These are two top-50 offenses, who play at break-neck speeds; Arkansas ranks fourth in the field in pace, while Colgate is right behind at No. 5. Styles make fights, and the Razorbacks’ familiar style of play should make Colgate feel good about its chances. Arkansas has the better team, of course, highlighted by potential lottery pick Moses Moody, but — and it’s a big ol’ but — don’t be shocked if the Raiders just shoot the lights out and pick off the Hogs.

No. 12 Winthrop over (-6.5) No. 5 Villanova
A third upset? Pandemonium in the South! The case for picking against Villanova is obvious: They don’t have their best player after senior star Collin Gillespie went down with a knee injury two weeks ago. Villanova still is the more talented team, but the Eagles are riding high after a 23-1 campaign, and they’re a deep team that likes to run and run and run. Only Gonzaga and Alabama play with more pace, and the Winthrop can clean up on the offensive glass. If ‘Nova comes in feeling sorry for itself and not ready to go, the Eagles might run them out of the gym.

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EAST REGION
No. 12 Georgetown over (-5.5) No. 5 Colorado

The East region looks like it could end up being pretty chalky, although we’ll have to wait and see what comes of the No. 11 play-in games. But if you’re looking for a 12-5 — and who isn’t, honestly? — perhaps we could interest you in Patrick Ewing’s Hoyas. Here’s something that caught our eye in a tournament preview by Joe Osbourne over at Odds Shark: Only 10.53 percent of teams who lost their conference title game went on to play in the national title game. A first-round matchup with Georgetown obviously isn’t the title game, but Colorado did lose the Pac-12 title game, while Georgetown is among the hotter teams in the country after surviving and advancing all the way to the Big East crown.

MIDWEST REGION
No. 13 Liberty over (-7.5) Oklahoma State

If you’re a Liberty fan, you’re hoping Ritchie McKay has been in the bunker for three days orchestrating a game plan to slow down presumptive 2021 NBA Draft No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham. It’s possible that plan doesn’t exist — short of physical harm, at least — but if you can slow down Cunningham for one game, you’ve got a chance. But Liberty is damn good on its own, too. The Flames are riding an 11-game winning streak, and they live by the 3-pointer. Only nine teams averaged more made triples per game than Liberty. For what it’s worth, OK State allowed 7.5 made 3-pointers per game, which ranked 203rd in the country. The path to victory is clear for Liberty.

No. 8 Loyola Chicago over No. 1 Illinois
OK, so our final pick is a second-round selection, and it’s a bold one. Can the Ramblers make another run like their improbable Final Four season in 2018? Probably not, and a second-round date with an Illinois team many like to win it all is a brutal draw. But Loyola is a pain in the rear to play against. Despite their No. 8 seed in the region, the Ramblers finished ninth in KenPom’s overall rankings for the entire country. That’s thanks in large part due to a defense that ranked No. 1 in the land, not to mention a top-10 finish in effective field goal percentage. They also play as slow as molasses. Add it all up, and you can start to see — if you squint hard enough — a scenario where they just frustrated the hell out of Brad Underwood’s team and pull the upset. And don’t discount the extra motivation that would come from knocking off their Prairie State big brother.