College Football Odds: Six Win Totals You Should Consider This Season
Nobody is stopping Ohio State in the Big Ten
The college football season begins in 10 days and I can hardly wait.
I actually prefer betting college over the NFL because there are more teams, more games and more opportunities to find an edge against the sportsbooks. Bookmakers often tell me how tough it is to make tight lines for almost 130 college football teams on a week-to-week basis.
This column will take a more big picture approach and tackle my favorite college football regular season win totals. These are season-long bets with a tangible number to bet "Over" or "Under." If you go "Over" 6.5 on a team, you'll need seven wins or more to cash your ticket. If you bet UMass "Under" 1.5, the Minutemen have to win less than two.
Here are six season win totals I'm playing this upcoming season:
Buffalo "Under" 7.5 wins -105 (DraftKings)
The Bulls could be in a lot of trouble this year. Lance Leipold left for the head coaching job at Kansas, and he took all his good players with him to Lawrence. New head man Maurice Linguist will need time to implement his philosophies and schematics and the Bulls only return 10 starters from last season's 6-1 squad that won the Camellia Bowl. Veteran college football handicapper Brad Powers told NESN that Buffalo is his most downgraded team in the entire country.
Charlotte "Under" 5.5 wins -130 (Westgate)
There are not many winnable games on the schedule and I spoke to a Las Vegas oddsmaker who believes Charlotte will only be favored once (Gardner-Webb). Yikes. The 49ers don't return a ton of talent from a team that went 2-4 last season, and this road schedule is tough with games at Georgia State, Illinois, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. Charlotte's ceiling is likely five wins, so I'm content going "Under" 5.5 with a little extra juice.
Minnesota "Over" 6.5 wins -125 (DraftKings)
The Golden Gophers were decimated by COVID-19, opt-outs and injuries in 2020. There were a few games where Minnesota was down 20-plus players, so let's not put too much stock into last season. Head coach P.J. Fleck returns 20 total starters and his squad has the most returning offensive line starts in the country. That'll work wonders for an offense anchored by senior quarterback Tanner Morgan and senior running back Mohamed Ibrahim. Minnesota has too much experience to fail.
Ohio State "Over" 11 wins +110 (WynnBET)
I've got the Buckeyes favored by double digits in every single regular-season game. They are that loaded with talent and head coach Ryan Day is bringing in better recruiting classes than Urban Meyer did. Ohio State's 1-2 receiving combo of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson will not be stopped and quarterback C.J. Stroud is a Heisman candidate. Nobody in the Big Ten is touching the Buckeyes.
Ole Miss "Over" 7.5 wins -110 (DraftKings)
I'm higher on the Rebels than most because of quarterback Matt Corral. He combined to run and throw for 33 touchdowns and almost 4,000 yards of total offense as a sophomore while still learning head coach Lane Kiffin's offense on the fly. I expect Corral to take a big leap in his junior season and he'll have plenty of opportunities to be the hero in the fourth quarter. Ole Miss' young defense struggled last season, but they return nine starters and will add more talent from another Top 25 recruiting class.
Toledo "Over" 8.5 wins +100 (FanDuel)
I can see another MAC title in head coach Jason Candle's future. The Rockets have the most talent in the conference and they return 21 starters (11 on defense) from last season's squad that lost two games by a combined six points. The Toledo defense has been one of the best in the nation on third down over the last two seasons and there's absolutely no reason that should change. This is easily a nine- or 10-win football team that is really only a surefire underdog at Notre Dame.
Buffalo U7.5 -105
Charlotte U5.5 -130
Minnesota O6.5 -125
Ohio State O11 +110
Ole Miss O7.5 -110
Toledo O8.5 +100
RECORD: (45-44, -3.2)
