Why Likelihood Of Patriots-Bengals Wild Card Playoff Matchup Is Increasing

New England Patriots fans hoping for a first-round playoff matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals could get their wish.

The Bengals will be without starting quarterback Joe Burrow and Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon for Sunday’s regular season finale against the Cleveland Browns. Burrow told reporters Wednesday that he’ll sit out Week 18 to rest up for the playoffs, and Mixon was ruled out after testing positive for COVID-19, per a report from ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

How do those developments affect the Patriots? Here’s how:

If the Patriots defeat the Miami Dolphins, the Buffalo Bills beat the New York Jets and the Bengals lose to the Browns this Sunday, fifth-seeded New England would visit fourth-seeded Cincinnati on wild-card weekend. If all three of those teams win, the Patriots would head to Buffalo for Round 3 against its AFC East rival. (For the Patriots to win the AFC East and open the playoffs with a home playoff game, they’d need to beat the Dolphins and have the Jets upset the Bills.)

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A Cincinnati team without Burrow and Mixon has a lower chance of winning in Week 18, thus increasing the likelihood of a Pats-Bengals matchup in the first round of the NFL postseason.

Whether that would be a favorable matchup for New England is up for debate. The Bengals boast an explosive offense — led by Burrow, Mixon and wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd — that’s loaded with young talent, but they’ve had issues along the offensive line, their defense is average at best, and most of their top players have little to no playoff experience.

Cincinnati also has been inconsistent this season, dropping games to the lowly Jets and Chicago Bears and losing by 19 or more points twice. One of those lopsided losses came against the Browns (41-16 in Week 9), who also will be without their starting QB, Baker Mayfield, this Sunday.

Though the Bills and Bengals are New England’s most likely first-round opponents, the Patriots can finish as high as first in the AFC and as low as seventh. A win over Miami would ensure, at worst, a fifth-place finish.