This Advanced Stat Graph Suggests Patriots Are Better Than Many Think

Are we all underrating the New England Patriots?

Honestly, they’re a hard team to figure out. You could argue the Patriots are a few bad plays away from 4-1, if not 5-0. But you also could argue that New England is a Gunner Olszewski muffed punt away from being 1-4. Plus, there’s the ongoing uncertainty at quarterback to consider.

But what do the advanced metrics say?

The Athletic’s Chad Graff on Monday shared a graph that charts every NFL team based on offensive and defensive “expected points added.” For the uninitiated, EPA measures how well a team performs relative to expectation, factoring in various situations. Not all five-yard gains are created equal, after all.

The Patriots are one of only six teams who rank above average on both offense and defense. The Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are the other five.

Take a look:

Obviously, the catch is that the Patriots are close to the middle of the road in both categories, indicating they’re an average team. That much is reflected in how New England ranks in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA rankings.

At the end of the day, you’d rather have the Kansas City Chiefs’ elite offense and decidedly average defense over the Patriots’ slightly above-average offense and defense.

Still, there’s something to be said for being well-rounded, and New England certainly is that. The Patriots will look to get back to .500 when they visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.